I agree that the stories in the N.Y. Times and elsewhere about the nuclear war narrowly averted were CYA leaks. I don't think arguments surrounding the nuclear threat can ever be persuasive. The fact that Russia backed down from past redlines isn't dispositive. Nuke use will remain an unknowable threat. I suspect the majority of people who raise the nuclear threat have other strong objections to defeating Russia decisively. So we have a mix of legitimate fears and strong biases to contend with. Unfortunately, Putin may retain a useful card in the propaganda war.
The punditocracy has inched toward accepting that Biden and the Europeans were too cautious in 2022-23. But the more obvious disaster unfolding under Mike Johnson's machinations has moved attention away from the past. The people who wanted to appease Putin by ceding territory to Russia are now accusing the MAGA Republicans of being appeasers. Johnson has fouled-up the hopes of everyone except those on the curved end of the horseshoe who crave a U.S. or Ukrainian humiliation.
I was slightly surprised that Johnson doubled-down last week on his insistence that he get "some questions answered" before passing any Ukraine aid. I thought that trick ran its course months ago. Johnson demands that Biden define his goals and estimate the time and expense needed to achieve those goals. Needless to say, Biden is in no position to make any such predictions. Could Abraham Lincoln or FDR have produced such a business plan? Johnson is asking the impossible in order to blame Biden when Johnson kills Ukraine aid.
Anyway, I mention Johnson's comments because it signals that the chance of the House passing aid normally has dropped from 20% to 0%. It will have to be a discharge petition. I still think that eventually 1 of the 2 discharge proposals will find success. I say this because the alternatives are so much more politically risky for the actors. I don't think the Republicans are confident that they can blame Biden in November for Ukraine setbacks. Biden championing Ukraine, as he did in his State of the Union address, looks effective.
"Russia has a poorly trained army and a Canada-sized economy. 'This should be feasible, easily,' says Steven Everts of the EU Institute for Security Studies. Victory would require western countries to send non-combat troops such as de-miners, trainers and vehicle engineers. Countries would need to follow Denmark in giving every shell in their cupboards to Ukraine. Germany would have to send Taurus missiles. Replacing American support for Ukraine would cost the other Nato states about €65 per citizen per year. We could choose to let Ukraine win."
Sorry, a real chance ..that Europe will accept the challenge and just do it. Its doable. Its a European war after sll. Better the US pipes down for a bit, and has a protracted chat with itself. I over simplify obviously.
Is there another country in the world that allows a ‘speaker’ of a legislative branch of government the power to block a budgetary vote? How can one man, the leader of a minority faction, in the lower house of a legislature have such control? Can the discharge petition be accelerated?
The UK should be leading the European way here, but at least Macron is standing up. I can’t help thinking that with the US going awol there is a real chance thaty
What makes it “doable” is Europe getting out of its own way. As Prof. O’Brien pointed out in his podcast, it is only this year that the EU finally got serious re: building up ammo mfg capacity again. Can’t make shells w/o factories.
Moreover, it’s also the EU that finally removed the stupid political block on buying SK, Pakistani, whoever’s shells instead of doing the usual EU foreign aid thing where the foreign aid has to be spent inside the EU (aka subsidize domestic interests).
If hundreds of thousands of shells start arriving in UKR, then the great shell hunger may be over, which in turn ends the reign of the Zerg rush re: Russian advancement by foot across eastern Ukraine.
I also agree that the long term goal has to be a commitment to the 1990 borders, come what may. Make Putin start to worry about EU escalation vs. the other way around. The EU could unilaterally start punishing Kazakhstan, the UAE, etc. for blockade running re: embargoed parts by limiting exports to those nations and more importantly putting key German machine tool parts on the ITAR list since said OEMs seem to have issues with policing embargoed parts themselves.
The Russian war economy cannot function without access to German machine tools, so make the parts harder to get. Ditto US and Taiwanese chips, and so on. Start tightening the noose re: supplies, just as the allies did by systematically sinking every ship trying to bring the fruits of aggression back to the Japanese homeland during WWII.
For example, start “inspecting” oil tankers that are sitting in Greek waters transferring crude to run the oil blockade. Why are they even allowed into Greek waters? I’m not advocating for seizure but simply forcing the Russians and their enablers out of the EU sphere will be painful to them and make subterfuge easier to detect.
I agree that the stories in the N.Y. Times and elsewhere about the nuclear war narrowly averted were CYA leaks. I don't think arguments surrounding the nuclear threat can ever be persuasive. The fact that Russia backed down from past redlines isn't dispositive. Nuke use will remain an unknowable threat. I suspect the majority of people who raise the nuclear threat have other strong objections to defeating Russia decisively. So we have a mix of legitimate fears and strong biases to contend with. Unfortunately, Putin may retain a useful card in the propaganda war.
The punditocracy has inched toward accepting that Biden and the Europeans were too cautious in 2022-23. But the more obvious disaster unfolding under Mike Johnson's machinations has moved attention away from the past. The people who wanted to appease Putin by ceding territory to Russia are now accusing the MAGA Republicans of being appeasers. Johnson has fouled-up the hopes of everyone except those on the curved end of the horseshoe who crave a U.S. or Ukrainian humiliation.
I was slightly surprised that Johnson doubled-down last week on his insistence that he get "some questions answered" before passing any Ukraine aid. I thought that trick ran its course months ago. Johnson demands that Biden define his goals and estimate the time and expense needed to achieve those goals. Needless to say, Biden is in no position to make any such predictions. Could Abraham Lincoln or FDR have produced such a business plan? Johnson is asking the impossible in order to blame Biden when Johnson kills Ukraine aid.
Anyway, I mention Johnson's comments because it signals that the chance of the House passing aid normally has dropped from 20% to 0%. It will have to be a discharge petition. I still think that eventually 1 of the 2 discharge proposals will find success. I say this because the alternatives are so much more politically risky for the actors. I don't think the Republicans are confident that they can blame Biden in November for Ukraine setbacks. Biden championing Ukraine, as he did in his State of the Union address, looks effective.
The Financial Times has a paywall-freed opinion piece that is more cynical than our podcast heroes about Europe's progress.
https://t.co/4wHutmKgEO
It does conclude with a rousing call to arms:
"Russia has a poorly trained army and a Canada-sized economy. 'This should be feasible, easily,' says Steven Everts of the EU Institute for Security Studies. Victory would require western countries to send non-combat troops such as de-miners, trainers and vehicle engineers. Countries would need to follow Denmark in giving every shell in their cupboards to Ukraine. Germany would have to send Taurus missiles. Replacing American support for Ukraine would cost the other Nato states about €65 per citizen per year. We could choose to let Ukraine win."
Sorry, a real chance ..that Europe will accept the challenge and just do it. Its doable. Its a European war after sll. Better the US pipes down for a bit, and has a protracted chat with itself. I over simplify obviously.
Vive la France!
Is there another country in the world that allows a ‘speaker’ of a legislative branch of government the power to block a budgetary vote? How can one man, the leader of a minority faction, in the lower house of a legislature have such control? Can the discharge petition be accelerated?
The UK should be leading the European way here, but at least Macron is standing up. I can’t help thinking that with the US going awol there is a real chance thaty
What makes it “doable” is Europe getting out of its own way. As Prof. O’Brien pointed out in his podcast, it is only this year that the EU finally got serious re: building up ammo mfg capacity again. Can’t make shells w/o factories.
Moreover, it’s also the EU that finally removed the stupid political block on buying SK, Pakistani, whoever’s shells instead of doing the usual EU foreign aid thing where the foreign aid has to be spent inside the EU (aka subsidize domestic interests).
If hundreds of thousands of shells start arriving in UKR, then the great shell hunger may be over, which in turn ends the reign of the Zerg rush re: Russian advancement by foot across eastern Ukraine.
I also agree that the long term goal has to be a commitment to the 1990 borders, come what may. Make Putin start to worry about EU escalation vs. the other way around. The EU could unilaterally start punishing Kazakhstan, the UAE, etc. for blockade running re: embargoed parts by limiting exports to those nations and more importantly putting key German machine tool parts on the ITAR list since said OEMs seem to have issues with policing embargoed parts themselves.
The Russian war economy cannot function without access to German machine tools, so make the parts harder to get. Ditto US and Taiwanese chips, and so on. Start tightening the noose re: supplies, just as the allies did by systematically sinking every ship trying to bring the fruits of aggression back to the Japanese homeland during WWII.
For example, start “inspecting” oil tankers that are sitting in Greek waters transferring crude to run the oil blockade. Why are they even allowed into Greek waters? I’m not advocating for seizure but simply forcing the Russians and their enablers out of the EU sphere will be painful to them and make subterfuge easier to detect.