Hello All,
This update will be a little different, as much of it is being written on the night-train travelling from Ukraine towards Poland. I’ve spent the last week in Ukraine having a series of meetings and taking part in two large events (more on that below). Its been an important week, and once again I’ve been impressed with the resilience and courage with which the Ukrainians are facing their present. But also, it needs to be said, that they need our help now a great deal, and in many ways that help in not reaching the country in the best and most timely ways.
As such, most of this update will be my impressions of where the war stands. Its been a whirlwind week and I’ve met large numbers of people from senior governmental and military figures to many people just trying to live their lives and survive. The intensity of the week also means that Ive not been able to interact with subscribers in the post-chats and I apologize for that. I will try to do better this coming week (once Ive caught up on my sleep).
Ukrainian History Global Initiative
Before I get into my impressions, though, I want to tell you about a really important project that I’ve been honored to be invited into, and which will be taking up a good deal of my professional life in the coming few years. Its the Ukrainian History Global Initiative—and we had our first general meeting last week in Kyiv, one of the highlights of the visit.
The Purpose of the UHGI is to provide a new, and comprehensive history of the land and peoples ok Ukraine from pre-history to today. If you look above you will see the mission statement.
The ambition, breadth and depth of UGHI is substantial. It will tell the story of this land from before writing, through the Scythians, Kyivan Rus, the Khanate, and Early Modern and Late Modern Periods. One of its overriding aim is to provide a history of Ukraine that is not in the shadow of any other country or empire, and at the same time place what has happened here in a wider, global context. The end result will be approximately 70 “capsules” of about 30,000 words which will hopefully provide an entirely new picture of Ukraine and its history for much of the world.
I was honored to be asked, along with my co-author Mykola Bielieskov, to write the capsule entitled: Wars For Ukraine. So for the next few years we will be working closely with Ukrainian scholars and those from around the world to discuss how wars on the place of Ukraine and how wars waged by Ukrainians have helped create this country and state. Needless to say a great deal of our capsule will cover the last 10 years. Or hope and our challenge is to write a history of Ukraine and the present war which presents it from the point of view of Ukraine, and not from say the Russo-centric perspective which seemed to dominate much of the analysis and history to this point.
I will leave it at that for now. If you want to find out more about the purpose of UHGI, you can watch this launch video.
The State of the War
Of course much of my time here was spent learning about how Ukrainians from different walks of life see the war at present. That happened in a range of meetings from the Yalta European Strategy forum (YES), to a host of smaller meetings. Below was a picture I took at YES of President Zelensky speaking to the forum (and you might be able to guess who the dishevelled blond hair belongs to—try and guess the person to his right).
It might make sense if I divided up my impressions into the Difficulties and the Strengths of where things stand in Ukraine.
The Difficulties
Many Ukrainians are tired—tired in a way that only a people who have been in full-scale war for two and a half years can be. That, and their sleep is regularly disturbed. In the 7 nights that I was in Kyiv, only one did not have an air raid alert—and many of those alerts lasted for hours in the middle of the night (think 1am to 4am). Indeed, the Ukrainians have become so used to living with nightly air raids that they first see what systems the Russians have fired before deciding whether to get out of bed and head to the shelters. If its just Shahed’s being reported, many people seem to just stay in their beds. If there are missiles involved, its a different story.
Sleep deprivation is a real issue here. The amount of coffee kiosks on the streets (and the people buying drinks) is extraordinary.
Everyone also knows at least one person, but usually many, who have been killed. It gives them a very different perspective on life. I was talking with a PhD student who was just finishing up, and I asked this person if they had a post-doc plan. The student replied—”I would like to live for another year at least. I need to know I have a future first”.
One of the most difficult things for Ukrainians is that they clearly have doubts about the commitment of many of their partners. Its obvious that military aid has not been arriving as fast as promised and the Ukrainians really wonder if anyone beyond a small group of front-line states (the Baltics, Poland, the Nordics, Czech and Romania) actually want them to win the war. They are feeling pressure building from their allies to hand over some of their territory to Putin—and that is both maddening and bewildering. Dont be surprised if their view of the US and Germany is irreparably damaged at the end of the war—if it is not already done so.
Also, more often than not the discussion held outside Ukraine (worries about Russian escalation, the Russian military steamroller, the stupidity of Ukrainian strategy) is diametrically different than their own understanding of the war. They believe that the Russian military can be beaten and there was hardly a mention of a fear of escalation. Indeed the escalation fear causes enormous frustration, they say that if they are not afraid of Putin using a nuclear weapon on them, its a little odd for others to be freaking out about it.
Finally, there is some frustration with the Ukrainian war effort as well. There is no honeymoon any more. Most people still support Zelensky, but there is also a desire for greater purpose. Interestingly, the most distrusted figure in the Ukrainian government seemed to be Andriy Yermak, who runs Zelensky’s office (sort of a super chief of staff). He is considered a block on positive reform and someone who tries to control everything by himself—and not in the best ways. So there is some robust criticism of the government amongst the Ukrainians.
What there was little criticism of was the armed forces. This is the institution that basically unites the country like no other. The Ukrainians personally rely on it every night to keep them safe—they all know the sound of successful air-interceptions over their homes, and they all know what its like to see soldiers on the street. In that way, the Ukrainian military has arguably become the core of Ukrainian life. More than the church, or the government, its the military that they believe is keeping them safe. Thats not to say that everyone has a positive view of General Syrskyi. He divides opinion as fiercely as when he was appointed. However, beyond individual commanders, the support for the armed forces was fierce.
The Strengths
The Ukrainians by a large majority believe that they can defeat the Russian army. They have seen it in the field for two and a half years, and certainly don’t believe it is some invincible force. They understand it is large, with a good deal of heavy firepower, but they also believe that it has real weaknesses in morale, command and control, and adaptability. Its why they find the question of aid from their partners so frustrating—they believe that they can win, but they also understand that support from outside is going to be crucial.
They are also going to great lengths to build up a domestic arms industry—with particular strengths in areas such as UAVs and Sea Drones. One of the benefits that Ukraine has over Russia is that it has a more nimble and adaptable economy. The number of new start ups working on UAVs really is impressive. And as such they have a very good chance of staying ahead in the innovation cycle.
The innovation cycle in this war is incredibly fast. When it comes to FPV UAVs for instance, I heard it said that the cycle is around 6-8 weeks. So if you bring in an innovation, the other side can counter it relatively quickly, As such the side that continually lead the innovation cycle will gain a significant upper hand,
In discussions at YES and in other places, the great innovation people talked about was the AI controlled UAV. Now versions of this are already in place, and both sides are working on them. However neither side seems to have developed an AI that can really effectively control the UAV if it is cut off from its controller. However, the plan would be to come up with a system that can make the UAV self-controlled even having been cut off—being able to at a minimum to complete an attack. The more ambitious hope is an AI powered UAV that can operate for long periods without human control, scouting around until it finds an enemy target and then attacking itself.
That would require the processing power to be able to identify accurately enemy pieces of equipment (a real problem when both sides are fielding different versions of Soviet-era designs). So far no one has been able to do that effectively. The Ukrainian military officers who spoke at YES mentioned it being something that should be available in 6 months. This might be optimistic—but if it can happen, it would be a major advantage.
If the Ukrainians believe that they can win, and have a more flexible and creative society, they also believe that they must win. It was sobering how many Ukrainians said to me that they must triumph, as the only other option is death. They see the Russians attacking their cities, nurseries, hospitals, cafes, every day. They hear Russian rhetoric about wiping them out—and they believe it. They go through every day believing that they are fighting an enemy whose goal it is to kill them.
Making “peace” in such a situation seems to them almost impossible, so they are fighting.
The Ukrainian Narrative of Kursk
One thing that was constant during the week was the Ukrainian discussion of the Kursk Offensive. Its fascinating just how different it is in Ukraine from the West in general. Zelensky made a detailed description of why the Kursk offensive was a success—as did many others. The three most points are:
1) It is drawing away Russian forces. The Russians are having to undergo a large build-up in the Kursk area to try and drive the Ukrainians back. The Ukrainian government claimed yesterday that there were now 45,000 Russian troops that have been massed against the Ukrainian invasion.
2) This is having a material impact on Russian forces in the Pokrovsk area (and the rest of the Donbas). In the last two weeks, actually, Russian advances towards Pokrovsk have been very small and decreasing. The Russians seem to be having difficulty generating the force to keep this offensive going and at the same time build-up in Kursk. Moreover, the Ukrainians seem to be probing at other parts of the line at Kursk—possibly trying to draw in more Russian forces and away from Pokrovsk.
3) The Kursk offensive was a key part of getting Ukraine’s partners (really Washington) to finally agree to Ukraine using western weapons for longer-range strategic strikes in Russia itself. The invasion of Russia, and the slow way Russia has reacted, has exposed once again how hollow Russian red lines are.
And it is worth noting that stories are coming out in the last day that the Russians are having to send forces from Pokrovsk. Remember, the great criticism of Kursk from western analysts was that it would not stop Russia from taking Pokrovsk, but indeed make it easier for Russia to take the city. All we can do now is see if the Ukrainians are right. They certainly believe they are.
For reference, here is the most up to date map of the Pokrovsk front from Deep State.
And here it was last Sunday.
So that’s a very quick summary of some of my impressions of Ukraine and the state of the war. Will send out more during the course of the week.
Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.
Good luck with your new project. To find what happened in the past wars may be difficult, but understanding why they were allowed to occur at all might be impossible. For a supposedly intelligent species, we are very slow to learn.
PS Please do not allow yourself to stress on posting here. I think I can safely claim for all that you have already exceeded our expectations. If you explain the Ukrainian war history as well as you explain the situation here and in your books, then all will benefit.
Thank you for this update; I appreciate you sharing your insights, especially with regards to how the Ukrainians see their efforts. My frustration with the US, already extreme, has now reached a fevered pitch. Honestly, I’m surprised I haven’t been blacklisted from Whitehouse.gov, given how many messages I post there.
I look forward to reading your “capsule” as well as all the others; sounds like a fascinating read.