Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

And: First draft of the Atlantic Article

Hello All,

Did you know everything is now going to be great for Europe and Trump? I mean, I know in the previous weeks things seemed to be a little dicey. Yes, I know, Trump did threaten to downgrade US security commitment to Europe, did call President of Zelensky of Ukraine a dictator, Trump did lavish praise on Dictator Vladimir Putin of Russia, Trump’s acolytes interfered energetically in the German elections to try and elect a pro-Putin Party, Trump starting normalizing relations with Russia to the point of view that he supported Russia in the UN. and Trump is now discussing allowing many more Russian spies into the USA, and yes Trump did see his pro-Putin director of national intelligence take office and threaten a purge of US agents, etc, etc, etc.

But who cares! I mean he sat next to Macron and they patted each other on the back! Next, he spoke about a possible great new trade deal with the UK (which has no concrete existence)! He even signed a nothingburger raw materials deal with Ukraine, which gives Ukraine no new security guarantees and military aid and which the US can leave at any time!

Great friends—really.

Its all so textbook—Europe is in an abusive relationship with Trump and refuses to accept it. I went online (shock, horror) to find out why people stay in abusive relationships—and its amazing that European states are showing all the major reasons. Here are the top 4 according to the US National Domestic Abuse Hotline.

We have seen all of these behaviours from Europe the last few weeks.

1. Fear. A person will likely be afraid of the consequences if they decide to leave their relationship. This could be fear of their partner’s actions or concern over their own ability to be independent.

   European leaders are terrified that Trump is about the abandon them—particularly about Ukraine. So what they are doing is exactly the wrong thing, and reinforcing the message that Europe cant possibly protect Ukraine without the USA—with UK Prime Minister Starmer saying that out loud this week.

   Sir Keir Starmer has said any Ukraine peace deal would require a "US backstop" to deter Russia from attacking its neighbour again.

   Speaking after a hastily convened meeting with European leaders in Paris, he said a "US security guarantee was the only way to effectively deter Russia", and vowed to discuss the "key elements" of a peace deal with US President Donald Trump in Washington next week.

2. Normalized Abuse. If someone grew up in an environment where abuse was common, they may not know what healthy relationships look like. As a result, they may not recognize that their partner’s behaviors are unhealthy or abusive.

   Trump is so abusive to European states that they fall over themselves with relief whenever he does something not terrible (and then seem to be shocked when he returns to being abusive). This week was a great example of that. President Macron of France went to the White House and he and Trump seemed to get along fine (see picture above).

   And then, two days later, Trump returns to form and announced brutal new tariffs of 25% on goods from Europe (based on a non-sensical idea that a VAT tax is a form of tariff). Trump even says out loud that he believes that the EU was formed to “screw” the USA—which is of course nonsense as the USA was one of the biggest supporters of European unity. You can see this below.

   3. Shame: It can be difficult for someone to admit that they’ve been or are being abused. They may feel that they’ve done something wrong, that they deserve the abuse, or that experiencing abuse is a sign of weakness. Remember that blame-shifting is a common tactic that their partner may use and can reinforce a sense of responsibility for their partner’s abusive behaviors.

   Europe has been so ashamed of its own weakness, that it would rather go on pretending that the USA can be relied upon that take actions that it clearly wont. Thus, for all the talk of Europe standing up for itself, actually what we see are really small changes. If Europe were not too ashamed of its weakness it would start taking real steps to prepare for a future of strategic autonomy, instead of the mealy-mouthed ones we see. For instance, France, Germany and the UK, the three biggest European economies who should be leading the drive for greater defense spending, are still spending far too little and pretending all is fine.

   France, for all of Macron’s fine words, is set to be spending only 2.1% of GDP on defence in 2029—barely more than they spent in 2022.

   

   The UK made an announcement this week that they will grow to spend 2.5% of defense on GDP—but not until 2027.

   Germany, not surprisingly lags both the UK and France, and is struggling to get to 2% of GDP in defense spending.

   Basically, Europe’s largest and most powerful states are too ashamed to admit what they have done and are trying to pretend that tiny changes are enough—when they clearly or not.

4. Intimidation. A survivor may be intimidated into staying in a relationship by threats.

   We have seen some great examples of Trumpite intimidation over the last few weeks. From Ukraine being threatened with an “offer it cant refuse” on mineral rights, to JD Vance saying Europeans are not really free and need to change to be more like America and Russia, to new US threats about tariffs, etc. Trump basically constantly oscillates between threats and intimidation and then small signs of affection—and then back to threats.

   And yet even when it is shown that not giving into threats, such as Ukraine did with the first version of the the minerals deal, is by far the best way—European states continue to try and find a way to “work” with Trump or “build bridges” to him.

And there we have it. Europe is refusing to admit that it is in an abusive relationship with Trump. Its afraid, has normalized the abuse, is ashamed of its own weakness, and is constantly the subject of intimidation. The more European leaders run to Trump for any signs of affection, the more they seriously wait to start arming to defend themselves, the more the pass off Trumpite threats and forgive his cooperation with Putin, the more difficult it will be to leave.

Europe’s only way to look after itself and deal rationally with Trump is to admit that it is in this abusive relationship—and have the self-respect to move on.

Atlantic Draft

Hi all, I had a piece in the Atlantic this week which argued that Europe needed to honestly admit what it was seeing with Trump, regain some self-esteem and start thinking for themselves.

Below is the full-first draft of the piece that I wrote. Its rather different from the final published version (usually my first drafts are more biting) but it contains many of the similar ideas. I try to give access to these to my paying subscribers—and there will be more incoming.