Why can Ukraine win? Because its military is (at least) 3 times as efficient

What losses tell us about the capabilities of the two sides

Hello All,

I get a lot of questions about how I can be so confident that Ukraine can win this war if properly armed. I had another at an event last night. The arguments I get presented with are that Russia is too large, the defensive line that they have constructed is so strong, etc. I counter by saying that people are not giving proper credit to what we are seeing in this war. We are not looking at two comparable militaries—in which case Ukraine really would struggle to advance going forward. We are actually looking at one far more efficient military (Ukraine’s), which has inflicted damage on the other (Russia’s) in such a lopsided manner that it stands out in military history.

A Russian tank turret that has been separated from its tank. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-ukraine-reaching-tipping-point

What the Ukrainians have done, while being both of the defensive and offensive (more about that below)) is destroy far more Russian equipment than they have lost. Their loss differential is normally around 3 or 4 to 1. Moreover, this loss differential has been inflicted in historically exceptional circumstances. The Ukrainians have a considerably smaller military, have less equipment overall, and in certain specialized equipment (such as fixed wing aircraft) the Ukrainians are very much outclassed. All of this would normally lead to the larger side inflicting greater losses on the smaller with its greater stores of equipment and supplies. Basically the larger overwhelms the smaller and this normally leads to extreme losses for the smaller side—think of the German military in 1918 and 1944, the Russian military in 1917 and the Japanese military in 1944-45.

Ukraine has done the opposite—it has destroyed Russian equipment at a relatively unprecedented rate (the best comparison might be the Israeli military in 1973). Indeed, the point out that the Ukrainian military is in a different league from the Russians—more flexible, systematic and lethal. It is a superior military that can win this war.

To show this, lets start with overall losses since Feb 24, 2022—and then look at one case study during the Ukrainian counteroffensive (which is particularly indicative of relative military balance for reasons I will discuss).