Why Bakhmut? A Guesstimate of Ukrainian Strategy
Bakhmut doesnt matter--the coming Ukrainian offensive really does.
I was this week going to finish up my writings on military learning by discussing the Russian campaign against Ukrainian power generation and critical infrastructure, but the Battle of Bakhmut seems so much in the news still, that I thought it would be worth exploring just why the Ukrainians have decided to keep fighting for the town, even though on the map Ukrainian forces seem to be in a precarious position. The reasons has to do with understanding what the Russians are willing to expend (and where) and doing everything possible to set the stage for a successful Ukrainian offensive later this year.
Earlier today, Avril Haines, part of the Biden Administration’s National Intelligence Agency said that the Russians might soon switch to the defensive because of heavy losses. This is by far the last thing Ukraine wants.
Ukraine wants Russia to keep fighting their inefficient, offensive war, to continue to suffer high losses and not to prepare deep defensive forces—and that is why they would want to draw out the battle, even when it looks like their forces are so exposed. Indeed, you cant understand why Ukraine is willing to fight to the bitter end at Bakhmut unless you understand that the offensive force the Ukrainians are preparing is their real focus at present. The more they waste of Russians forces around Bakhmut, the less they have to fight when this far more important offensive starts later.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/06/ukraine-is-building-up-its-forces-for-an-offensive
To understand why Ukrainian strategy seems determined to continue fighting over Bakhmut, you have to start by putting the battle into its long-term context. Russian forces have been trying to take Bakhmut since this summer—in what is one of the slowest moving, ponderous campaigns that I can remember in modern military history. Here is a an excellent time-lapse map of the campaign of Russian advance. You can see the Russians incrementally moving forward since June 2022.
Looking at the map reveals two things—that the Russian military is a ponderous and declining institution, and one that is willing to expend enormous resources to try and take a town of practically no strategic importance.
