Why Bakhmut? A Guesstimate of Ukrainian Strategy

Bakhmut doesnt matter--the coming Ukrainian offensive really does.

I was this week going to finish up my writings on military learning by discussing the Russian campaign against Ukrainian power generation and critical infrastructure, but the Battle of Bakhmut seems so much in the news still, that I thought it would be worth exploring just why the Ukrainians have decided to keep fighting for the town, even though on the map Ukrainian forces seem to be in a precarious position. The reasons has to do with understanding what the Russians are willing to expend (and where) and doing everything possible to set the stage for a successful Ukrainian offensive later this year.

Bakhmut lines of control, 8 March 2023. Source: Institute for the Study of War. https://understanfdingwar.org

Earlier today, Avril Haines, part of the Biden Administration’s National Intelligence Agency said that the Russians might soon switch to the defensive because of heavy losses. This is by far the last thing Ukraine wants.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent

⚡️US intelligence chief: Russia may switch to defense due to lack of resources.

kyivindependent.comUS intelligence chief: Russia may switch to defense due to lack of resourcesRussia could shift to a strategy of holding and defending existing positions as it lacks the ammunition and troops to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in 2023, Avril Haines, the director of U.S. national intelligence, said on March 8, cited

Ukraine wants Russia to keep fighting their inefficient, offensive war, to continue to suffer high losses and not to prepare deep defensive forces—and that is why they would want to draw out the battle, even when it looks like their forces are so exposed. Indeed, you cant understand why Ukraine is willing to fight to the bitter end at Bakhmut unless you understand that the offensive force the Ukrainians are preparing is their real focus at present. The more they waste of Russians forces around Bakhmut, the less they have to fight when this far more important offensive starts later.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/06/ukraine-is-building-up-its-forces-for-an-offensive

To understand why Ukrainian strategy seems determined to continue fighting over Bakhmut, you have to start by putting the battle into its long-term context. Russian forces have been trying to take Bakhmut since this summer—in what is one of the slowest moving, ponderous campaigns that I can remember in modern military history. Here is a an excellent time-lapse map of the campaign of Russian advance. You can see the Russians incrementally moving forward since June 2022.

Ulrike Franke @RikeFranke

Russian troops close in on Bakhmut. Overview of maps by @FT Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in maps — latest updates on.ft.com/3Hh3p6f

Looking at the map reveals two things—that the Russian military is a ponderous and declining institution, and one that is willing to expend enormous resources to try and take a town of practically no strategic importance.