What Happens If Trump Does Say He's "Done" With The War?
It Could Make Things Somewhat Better For Ukraine--Or Much Worse
Hi All,
Well, not long after I sent out yesterday’s weekend update with an outline of what seemed to be a US-Russian Pact, it was confirmed in the Wall Street Journal that this is indeed what the US was trying to force Ukraine to accept. The Trump plan seems tailor-made to give Putin what he wants. The Russians keep all occupied territory and in the case of Crimea, Ukraine must cede legal title. This alone makes the deal horrific, as it means that conquest would have been legalized, indeed sanctioned, in post 1945 Europe. However that is not all. Its also made clear in the deal that Ukraine is to be kept out of NATO. And we can assume that sanctions on Russia would either be strongly relaxed or even eliminated. We know that because Trump, in a tweet that seems aimed to try and pressure Ukraine into agreeing the deal, discussed doing “Big Business” with the United States.
This was where we were heading since the US started threatening to walk away from these negotiations if the different parties (actually mostly the Ukrainians) did not accept. Its why we seem to be approaching a real crisis—which might see either the US walking away or Ukraine being bullied into a bad deal. Both are fraught with some real dangers.
I’ve seen some comments saying it would be a good thing for Ukraine if the USA withdrew from active involvement in the Russo-Ukraine War. I understand some of what they are saying, but being the miserable pessimist that I am, I also see a chance that such a move could go badly wrong (because the USA would not in essence become neutral but side more openly with Russia). I thought it might be useful therefore to sketch out the possible good news and then contrast it with the possible very bad, to show the different possible permutations of the USA is “done” with the war.
The big reason I’m a pessimist is that the possible second and third order effects of such a development are very worrying. For instance, its not clear that the optimistic case takes into consideration the impact that such a move could have on other powers—particularly China. So to try and sum up the different visions, here are the reasons for optimism and the reasons for pessimism.
The Optimistic Case—The US Becomes Neutral
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