Weekend Update#135 (Update): The Ukrainians Just Pulled Off The Most Successful Operation Of The War

Hi All, I just updated my normal weekend update with this information—but I realize most people have already opened that email—so I’m sending this out separately as well.

The Ukrainians Just Pulled Off The Most Successful Operation Of The War

Ok—Update time. A few hours after I sent out my update, reports started coming in about the most remarkable and successful operation of the war so far. It seems, entirely credibly, that the Ukrainians in one fell swoop have destroyed or at least heavily damaged 40-plus high value Russian aircraft at four different airbases—at about the same time. This is a big blow to Russian strategic airpower which is hard to underestimate. It also highlights why the narrative that Russia is somehow destined to prevail because of its greater strength is, shall we say, nonsense.

First, what do we know about the attacks.

Well the Ukrainians coordinated attacks on at least four different airfields across Russia, including Belaya Air Base, which is about 6000 kilometres from Ukraine (its a 6105 kilometre drive from Kyiv for instance—here is a map).

Belaya also houses some of the most valuable Russian aircraft, including the long-range TU-95 strategic bombers, which are one of the most effective tools being used by the Russians to attack Ukraine. They can carry up to eight Kh-101 missiles each on external pylons, and these missiles have a range of over 5000 kilometres, advanced radar evading capabilities, integrated decoys, and carry 400 kilogram warheads. Just a few days ago, 10 Russian TU-95s were used to launch a large volley of KH-101s on Ukraine during one of Russia’s massed attacks on Ukrainian cities.

It also must be noted that Russia has no way to build new TU-95s (they were originally built decades ago) and there is no equivalent that they can somehow magically rush into production. These are real capability losses that will be impossible to make up.

Overall, the Ukrainians have claimed to have hit more than 40 Russian aircraft, not only TU-95s, but also Tu-22M3s as well as A-50s. These are all high value targets.

How the attacks were supposedly carried out is also remarkable. It is being claimed that trucks were driven near the bass, trucks which possessed rooftop compartments that were hiding flocks of drones. This is a picture that has been circulating of what they may have looked like.

So, trucks crammed with drones were near enough to the bases that the drones could be have been released and then flown on to attack their targets very quickly. There were a numbers of videos released with pictures of what were claimed to be burning Russian airbases. You can see some here.

Its an amazing operation to have been carried out by Ukrainian intelligence—and reports are circulating that it took one and a half years to organize. That tells you a great deal about how the Ukrainians have gone about planning this war.

What Do We Not Know?

There are a number of intriguing questions to which we will need answers. How many aircraft have been fully destroyed? The original Ukrainian claims are more than 40. However its not clear whether this was aircraft hit or aircraft destroyed. A Ukrainian I trust completely said confirmed Russian bombers destroyed presently sits at 10 (Im assuming that this is TU-95s) and that you can expect this to rise.

Also, we do not know how the UAVs were controlled. There was some talk that this was AI—which seems a reach to me (full AI that is). The drones could have had a basic target recognition software on them, or certain programmed flight patterns. That would be my guess as they would have to be self-guided if they were launched out of those trucks and deep inside Russia. However, we still have lots to learn about this.

If these were really AI-driven UAVS, the world of war just changed today. Im just sceptical for now.

And of course we do not know what the Russian reaction will be—however we can assume it will be violent and destructive. This is the greatest humiliation for Russia in the war. High value targets, deep inside Russia, were destroyed in one-fell swop by Ukrainian intelligence. Something will happen (it just will not be nuclear).

What Does This Mean?

Of course its far too early to say strategically. However it will definitely hurt Russia’s ability to launch the large barrages of missiles on Ukraine, and it will cause pandemonium on Russian bases as they look to their own security.

(Btw, it should also lead to intense security reviews at all NATO bases right now—we have been far too lax in allowing drone overflights of our facilities—and for allowing unfettered traffic alone and foreign nationals to buy land next to the most sensitive military facilities. The Ukrainians have just shown what enormous damage can be done by a (relatively cheap) drone swarm released close to a base. That has to be terribly worrying to every country in Europe and North America.

Most importantly, however, I would argue that this operation shows the value of ranged strike and reinforces the point that Ukraine can win the war is properly supported. The Russian military remains a very beatable, in some ways shoddy instrument. Ukraine has just hammered it using simple weapons, relatively speaking. If we armed Ukraine to take on Russia at range in a real and fulsome way—the Russian military would be in for a very rough time.

Just first impressions, but I think we have witnessed the most impressive operation of the war so far.