Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved

Zelensky's Speech In Davos; Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military

Hello All.

Before I get into the update I just wanted to point this Substack Live that I held on Friday with Taras Tymochko of Come Back Alive. Taras is one of CBA’s specialists working on the Dronefall Project, and has served in the Ukrainian military. Destroying Russian attack drones like Shaheds is more and more vital every day and this project attempts to do that with Ukrainian defensive drones. As the Ukrainian skies increasingly fill with these Russian systems, Ukraine needs a cost-effective way to defend itself and defensive drones are one of, if not the best.

If you are minded to support Ukraine in its struggle, I would hope you would consider a donation to CBA as one of the best ways to do this. You can donate internationally through this link.

Now for the update. I’m starting with a story that on the surface seems only tangentially linked to the Russo-Ukraine War, but which actually answers an important riddle. Since becoming President again, Donald Trump and his administration has been desperate to keep having frozen Russian assets used to help Ukraine. I assumed the plan was always to protect them for Putin and get payoffs for their work. We now see how that might happen.

A Perfect Board To Funnel Funds Around Dictators, Authoritarians And Their Wannabes

Also, President Zelensky gave a very important speech at Davos. He spoke bluntly to Europe and America about the war and as such the speech deserves some serious analysis. Finally, the Ukrainians are being more and more explicit about their military plans for 2026—and it is to cause massive Russian casualties.

A Corruption Riddle Solved

The United States government under Donald Trump, has been desperate to prevent seized Russian assets against being turned over to help the Ukrainian people in their struggle. The stories about the US lobbying efforts gained their most prominence in December but it is clear that they have been going on for far longer.

This US pressure has been depressingly successful. Though many European leaders talked big about using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, when push came to shove a few weeks ago they refused to do so. Instead of seizing the assets and using them directly, which could keep the Ukrainian war effort funded for years, making it clear to Russia that they cannot win, the Europeans took a meeker path. They made a last minute deal not to touch Russian assets but instead to loan Ukraine enough funds to keep their war effort going for one year. This will not have nearly the deterrent effect needed on the Russians, indeed it shows how protected seized Russian assets really are.

Now Trump’s position was, of course, internally logical. He has always wanted to return the seized Russian assets to Putin and to get back to business with Russia as soon as possible. He said this long before his second election victory and has followed up that policy with consistency since. One question I had, however, was how he might receive his largesse for helping Putin in this crucial manner.

Now we know.

Trump’s Board of Peace (signing picture above) is in some ways the pinnacle of Trump’s foreign policy making. It is a board which has no oversight or real purpose beyond spreading around money, and it is a board that he controls completely. Here is the list of signatories who appeared with Trump at his signing event in Davos.

• Isa bin Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, minister of the prime minister’s court, Bahrain

• Nasser Bourita, minister of foreign affairs, Morocco

• Javier Milei, president, Argentina

• Nikol Pashinyan, prime minister, Armenia

• Ilham Aliyev, President, Azerbaijan

• Rosen Zhelyazkov, prime minister, Bulgaria

• Viktor Orban, prime minister, Hungary

• Prabowo Subianto, president, Indonesia

• Ayman Al Safadi, minister of foreign affairs, Jordan

• Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, president, Kazakhstan

• Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu, president, Kosovo

• Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister, Pakistan

• Santiago Peña, president, Paraguay

• Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, prime minister, Qatar

• Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, minister of foreign affairs, Saudi Arabia

• Hakan Fidan, minister of foreign affairs, Turkey

• Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, special envoy to the U.S. for the UAE

• Shavkat Mirziyoyev, president, Uzbekistan

• Gombojavyn Zandanshatar, prime minister, Mongolia

And, of course, Putin has been invited to join, an offer which the Russians have taken up with gusto. European democracies, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc have mostly given the board a wide birth.

Though the Board was originally conceived up as part of the reconstruction/looting of Gaza, it seems a far greater construct now,; an entirely new international body. However its purpose is very different from all others. It is, as explicitly designed, a body to allow its chairman to have total control over tens, maybe hundreds of billions of dollars. Here is an article laying out its structure. In a nutshell, the chairman rules and everyone else pays. Here are some of my favorite bits from the founding charter. And remember, that Donald Trump is the chairman.

First—the chairman chooses all the members of the board.

Article 2.1: Member States
Membership in the Board of Peace is limited to States invited to participate by the Chairman, and commences upon notification that the State has consented to be bound by this Charter, in accordance with Chapter XI.

The chairman then gets paid. Once the chairman invites a member, how do they become a member? They do so by paying the princely sum of $1billion every three years into the funds controlled entirely by the chairman.

(c) Each Member State shall serve a term of no more than three years from this Charter’s entry into force, subject to renewal by the Chairman. The three-year membership term shall not apply to Member States that contribute more than USD $1,000,000,000 in cash funds to the Board of Peace within the first year of the Charter’s entry into force.

And once a member, all states are operating at the whims of the chairman.

The Board of Peace shall convene voting meetings at least annually and at such additional times and locations as the Chairman deems appropriate. The agenda at such meetings shall be set by the Executive Board, subject to notice and comment by Member States and approval by the Chairman.

Btw, not only does the chairman schedule all meetings, the chairman has what looks like total veto power over all decisions. All decisions require the “approval” of the chairman to become official—see emphasis added below.

Decisions shall be made by a majority of the Member States present and voting, subject to the approval of the Chairman, who may also cast a vote in his capacity as Chairman in the event of a tie.

In case you had any doubt about the Chairman’s total authority, these kinds of clauses were added throughout.

The Chairman shall have exclusive authority to create, modify, or dissolve subsidiary entities as necessary or appropriate to fulfill the Board of Peace’s mission.

The Executive Board shall be selected by the Chairman and consist of leaders of global stature.

Members of the Executive Board shall serve two-year terms, subject to removal by the Chairman and renewable at his discretion.

Hopefully you get the picture by now. And as for the money, there is absolutely no accountability. The Board does not even have to have an annual report, its funds are entirely controlled by the executive board (the one that is selected solely by the chairman and serves at his discretion). Here is the most important clause on that. Indeed the board only “may” authorize the establishment of accounts. It is a financial free for all.

Article 5.2: Accounts

The Board of Peace may authorize the establishment of accounts as necessary to carry out its mission. The Executive Board shall authorize the institution of controls and oversight mechanisms with respect to budgets, financial accounts, and disbursements, as necessary or appropriate to ensure their integrity.

So in the end the Board of Peace receives many tens of billions of dollars, is entirely controlled by the chairman and has now measures for financial accountability beyond the whims of the chairman and a board selected by the chairman that the the chairman can dismiss at any time.

As someone I was talking to said, this is exactly how Trump runs his golf clubs.

Btw, the European Council for Foreign Relations has put together this useful schema of the Board of Peace’s structure, with the chairman in control.

What the board is is the greatest vehicle created in human history to transfer wealth to be used by its chairman. And where might that wealth come from. Well, Putin offered to pay his first $billion directly from seized Russian assets under US control. And Trump in return said that was perfectly fine by him. Here was the president when asked about the Russian offer.

Reporter: President Putin has said that he may use frozen Russian assets to pay for his entry to the board of peace. Were you inclined to let him do that?

Trump: I don't know about that. I've heard that. Who said that?

Reporter: President Putin

Trump: He said he was going to use his money.

Reporter: Frozen assets

Trump: Yeah, it’s fine. He’s using his money.

This is what I mean about the Board being the pinnacle of Trumpian foreign policy. It is the perfect vehicle to funnel tens, maybe hundreds of billions directly to him, for him to do with what he wants and for him to choose his own successor to carry afterwards. The chairman can keep what he wants, pay what he wants, demand what he wants—and nothing needs to be reported.

It is the perfect vehicle, for instance, for the chairman to be paid a percentage of seized Russian assets in return for Russia getting the rest back. One thing you can be sure about, the Board of Peace will have no Russian assets sent to Ukraine.

A corruption riddle has been solved.

Btw, here is the latest member of the Board of Peace, in case you missed it.

Zelensky’s Speech In Davos

At Davos last week, President Zelensky gave arguably his most blunt and honest international speech. What he did was let the mask of politeness and gratitude slip, one that many Ukrainians have been forced to wear to the shame of international supporters. During this last trip to Ukraine what was interesting was that in private Ukrainians went further than I had heard before in expressing their doubts about the USA/Trump administration and frustration with their European partners.

Zelensky Speaking Truthfully At Davos Last Week

The USA is now understood to be working more for Putin’s interests than for theirs and certainly is no longer looked at as a friend of Ukraine. Many people openly admitted that the Ukrainian government needed to pretend to go along with Donald Trump to try and get some remaining scraps from the US table, but that they knew the reality of where things stood.

With European leaders there was a great deal of frustration. The unevenness of European support was being discussed constantly. Ukraine had some great friends (Baltics and Nordics) but many European states seemed desperate to curry favor with Trump and others just wanted to be left alone. For the Ukrainians this was both depressing and enraging. While they froze and died, what they saw from Europeans was, to put it kindly, a mixed bag.

Zelensky at Davos gave voice to both emotions, carefully in the form of the USA and openly when it came to Europe. It is worth seeing how he did this.

Zelensky began the address not with praise or optimism, but by being brutally honest not only about the uselessness of Davos (to which I can attest) but also how after years, Ukraine’s European partners continue to fail.

Everyone remembers the great American film “Groundhog Day” with Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell. But no one would want to live like that – repeating the same thing for weeks, months, and, of course, for years. And yet, that’s exactly how we live now. And it’s our life. And every forum like this one proves it. Just last year, here in Davos, I ended my speech with the words: “Europe needs to know how to defend itself.” A year has passed – and nothing has changed. We are still in a situation where I must say the same words.

But why?

Then Zelensky did something very pointed. He mentioned the sacrifice of the Iranian people who, until now, also seem to have been abandoned by those who say they supported their fight for freedom.

There was so much talk about the protests in Iran – but they drowned in blood. The world has not helped the Iranian people enough. And it’s true – it has stood aside. In Europe, there were Christmas and New Year celebrations. The seasonal holidays. By the time politicians came back to work and started forming a position – the Ayatollah had already killed thousands.

And what will Iran become after this bloodshed? If the regime survives, it sends a clear signal to every bully: kill enough people, and you stay in power. Who in Europe needs that message to become a reality?

And then a few paragraphs later, Zelensky openly admitted that the earlier claims that Trump might send Ukraine Tomahawks were a great con.

And here, in Europe, we’re advised not to mention Tomahawks to the Americans – not to spoil the mood.

Eventually he got to the key parts, with the criticism of the USA and Europe. You can tell just how careful he felt he needed to be with Trump, and what he did was basically obliquely make it known that he has no confidence in Trump’s assurances—such as with NATO which he said continued to exist because of “belief” but he might as easily have added the word “misguided”.

Right now, NATO exists thanks to belief – belief that the United States will act, that it will not stand aside, and will help. But what if it doesn’t?

Believe me, this question is… It’s everywhere, in the minds of every European leader. And some try to get closer to President Trump. It’s true. Some wait – hoping the problem will disappear. Some have started acting – investing in weapons production, and et cetera, building partnerships, getting public support for higher defense spending…

Having shown how getting closer to Trump has not actually made NATO stronger, he turns Trump’s position on Europe on its head. Trump claims to love Europe, Zelensky says, but clearly he does not. Moreover, Zelensky added at this point, that Trump will not change and Europe better understand that damn quick.

Instead of taking the lead in defending freedom worldwide, especially when America’s focus shifts elsewhere – Europe looks lost, trying to convince the U.S. President to change. But he will not change.

President Trump loves who he is. And he says he loves Europe. But he will not listen to this kind of Europe.

I could go on and on. The purpose of the speech was clear. Zelensky was saying that he understands the USA is not a friend of Europe or Ukraine, is undermining NATO and is an enemy of freedom. Now, he is saying, European leaders must accept that as well. Only when they do will they assist Ukraine in the way that it needs to win the war and in the process prepare Europe for the future.

Zelensky is spot on. Understanding that the US is now antithetical to European freedom is the first step to accepting that Ukraine is correspondingly vital to that freedom. It should have happened by now, but it has not. I thought this paragraph right near the end was maybe the most important. Ukraine is vital to European power, indeed to Europe being a great power—one that has no rolefor the USA and does not depend on the USA.

And Europe must be strong. And Ukraine is ready to help – with anything needed to guarantee peace and prevent destruction. We are ready to help others become stronger than they are now. We are ready to be part of a Europe that truly matters – a Europe of real power – great power.

Zelensky is right on all of this.

Ukrainian Plans To Waste The Russian Military

This week the new Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov gave his most explicit remarks so far on Ukrainian battlefield plans for 2026. Speaking to the press early in the week Fedorov said that Ukrainians plans were to cause 50,000 Russian casualties a month in 2026.

Fedorov actually said “kill” but from his use of language, it seems more to be a reference to total casualties caused. For instance, he said that now the Ukrainians were up to causing 35,000 kills a month—but that seems to be the total casualties inflicted on the Russian military. Here is an excerpt from the Kyiv Independent story on Fedorov’s talk.

Ukraine aims to “kill 50,000 Russians per month,” the country’s new defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said during a meeting with the media.

Laying out his plan in his new role, Fedorov said he had two priorities, the first of which is “management.”

“Management must be built around those capable of achieving defined goals. If people don’t demonstrate measurable results, they can’t remain in the system,” said.

“The second strategic objective is to kill 50,000 Russians per month,” he said.

“Last month, 35,000 were killed; all these losses are verified on video. If we reach 50,000, we will see what happens to the enemy. They view people as a resource, and shortages are already evident.”

At the same time, the Ukrainians are trying to correct for their manpower issues by drastically reducing their own casualties. Understanding that having too many troops near the frontline is a road to disaster, they want to see this rise in Russian casualties be accompanied by a fall in their own. Its a tall ask, but it is exactly the right way to fight the war.

And the Ukrainians believe it is possible. They provided an intelligence briefing to the British just over a week ago which claimed that during the fighting for Kupiansk, they were able to inflict 27 casualties on the Russians for every one of their own.

Btw, I will withhold judgement on believing anything quite so extreme as 27-1, but it is worth noting that this is their position.

This kind of thinking, btw, was exactly what I tried to tell you the plan was well over a month ago. In the interview with General Havrylov given in December, he laid out this plan exactly.

And in this piece, I described specifically how the Ukrainians were fighting around Kupiansk (very small numbers of highly trained soldiers acting with great intelligence and precision to accomplish specific missions).

The Fewer Soldiers On The Front Line The Better

So Ukraine now has a plan going forward. Making it become a reality will be no easy task—but if they can do it, the Russian military will start wasting as an asset.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.