Weekend Update #167: Lets Be Honest, We Are Taking Advantage Of The Ukrainians

The Graham-Blumenthal Tango Of No Meaning; The Ukrainian Strategic Air Campaign Is Making A Difference: But Probably Needs More

Hi All,

Writing a weekend update from Ukraine is always different. Most of the time, of course, I write these pieces in the warmth, comfort and quiet of my study or office. However this time I am in Ukraine, where I have been the last few days and will be for a little longer. Later I will write a piece on my overall impressions, but this update will have to mention a few things I’ve seen about what the Ukrainians are experiencing.

Before I do that, however, I just wanted to mention that I recorded a podcast with Paul Krugman a while back, and it was released yesterday. Here is a link if you want to watch it (and there is a transcript too).

Now the update.

Lets Be Honest, We Are Taking Advantage Of The Ukrainians

If there have been two consistent themes that I have heard from the Ukrainians is that they believe that Putin and the Russians are out to destroy them as a people and a culture. Here they are, almost 4 years into this war, and the Russians are sacrificing hundreds of thousands of their soldiers yearly to take small farm fields. The Russians are making this sacrifice partly because they are willing to kill more of their soldiers to be able to kill one Ukrainian soldier. They are making the bloody calculation that the Ukrainians are smaller in number and therefore will run out of manpower sooner. If the Russians do not care about their people, the Ukrainians understand, it is unlikely that they care at all about the Ukrainians.

Even if there is a ceasefire in the nearish future (and opinions were divided on this) the basic fact that the Russian state sees a free and independent Ukraine as incompatible to its own greatness has been widely accepted here. Even if the fighting ends for a little bit, they assume it will come back sooner rather than later. Russia’s problem is Ukraine itself and a ceasefire will not correct that.

The second theme of the trip was that Ukrainians have learned to live with the kinds of deprivations that would cause most Americans and Europeans to panic and maybe break down. The last few days have been bitterly cold, minus 15 Celsius/just about 0 degrees Fahrenheit. The picture above was of the Golden Gate (a rebuild naturally) in central Kyiv the other night. It might give you an impression of what it felt like. Here, by the way is the great glory of Kyiv, St Sophia’s, in the snow.

Much of the left bank of Kyiv, a city of millions, has mostly been without power, heat and even water for days. Down in Dnipro it is even worse. And yet, no one complained. Far from it. They accepted this extraordinary situation as now a part of their life, a horrible but necessary condition that they must experience if they are going to survive.

At the same time, the USA has been abandoning Ukraine (and it has, lets stop pretending) while European states remain divided in their efforts. They are, in essence, taking advantage of Ukrainians—who just want to be European and who want to be allies of the USA. Ukraine’s partners seem to understand that the Ukrainians have no alternative but to fight for their existence. As this lack of alternative means the Ukrainians will make sacrifices to which are also protecting them.

Its pure exploitation.

The aid given to Ukraine is actually tiny compared to the massive costs that Ukraine is inflicting on Russia and the massive suffering of the Ukrainian people. They have no choice, while we remain safe and sound behind them, letting them suffer while we go about our lives.

And I can only imagine what the Ukrainian soldiers at the front are experiencing in this brutal cold. I did not go to the front as I see no glory in academics/analysts cosplaying Rambo. Indeed I find it unconscionable. By going near the front, all you are doing is asking Ukrainians who are accompanying you to risk their lives for nothing. Its shameful really.

However I met many soldiers who have been at the front. And they were appalled by this winter. The last few winters have actually been unseasonably warm in Ukraine—this one definitely is not. Its brutally cold, and its only January. It could get worse.

So, as you read this comfortable in your heated house, the lights on, food at the ready, no missile or drone circling above your head ready to obliterate you, realize that this is the opposite of the reality in Ukraine today. Their reality is the opposite in every way. So, no longer speak about “aiding” Ukraine. The Ukrainians are aiding Europeans and Americans by fighting for their survival. We owe them our gratitude, not the other way around.

The Graham-Blumenthal Tango Of Pointlessness

Yep, it is definitely going to happen this time. The White House promised, cross its heart and hope to die. The Graham-Blumenthal bill was going to be approved this coming week even and then brutal sanctions were going to be put on Russia. No more BS—it was happening. Five days ago we were assured by one of the Bill’s sponsors, Senator Lindsey Graham of SC, that the bill had been “greelit” by the White House and a vote would soon be scheduled.

Graham said Trump was serious this time.

“After a very productive meeting today with President Trump on a variety of issues, he greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that I have been working on for months with Sen. Blumenthal and many others,” Graham said in a statement released Wednesday evening.

“This will be well-timed, as Ukraine is making concessions for peace and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is all talk, continuing to kill the innocent,” Graham said.

“This bill will allow President Trump to punish those countries who buy cheap Russian oil fueling Putin’s war machine,” Graham said.

And the usual chorus of Trump-supporters who also lie and say that they support Ukraine, all said their usual hallelujahs. Trump will hit Russia hard now.

And since then guess what has happened. No vote has been scheduled, the White House has gone quiet, and Graham has gone on a frenzy of avoiding Ukraine and talking about how Trump wants to bring freedom to Iran.

Of course this whole discussion is one of the worst pantomines of the last few years. Its based on two fundamental untruths.

First—the Senate does not need the White House to greenlight the bill. The Senate is allowed to schedule and vote on its own bills based on its wishes. The whole discussion assumes a fallacy. If Graham actually supported his own bill, he could bring it to the floor this week. But he will not.

Congress remains, on paper at least, an independent part of the US government.

The second untruth is that Trump even needs the bill in the first place. The president has already determined that he has the right to place crippling sanctions anywhere he wants when he wants. Remember in August, Trump just kept putting extra tariffs on India because he wanted to? He even said at the time it was because India was purchasing too much Russian oil (though it was because the Indians did not kiss his ass enough). He did not require a bill from Congress to do that then, he would not require a bill from Congress to do it now.

Moreover, as he knows, Graham-Blumenthal does not make such tariffs mandatory. It just means the president can put them on if he wants. The fact that there are still no secondary sanctions on the purchasers of Lukoil and Rosneft oil might let you know how serious he is.

So to be clear on Graham-Blumenthal.

1. The Senate does not need White House approval to bring the bill to a vote

2. Trump believes he already has the power to levy such penalties anyway.

In other words, that if there was any real desire to bring the bill for a vote or to punish the Russians—both could happen right now. However, they are not.

Undoubtedly we will repeat this ridiculous process in a week or so.

The Ukrainian Strategic Air Campaign Is Making A Difference: But Probably Needs More

This week once again highlighted the different war making ethics and strategies on both sides. The Russians launched one of their most advanced ballistic missiles, the Oreshnik, against Ukraine. It was a classic intimidation tactic. “See what we can do”, the Russians were saying to Ukrainians and Europeans, “imagine if it were nukes!”

Btw, the reports I heard here were that the missile hit a useless . The missile hit a useless building. The Oreshnik seems to have accuracy problems.

The Ukrainians in return kept up their campaign against Russian oil production and supplies. The hit at least one major oil depot in southern Russia. The issue the Ukrainians face is two fold and they know it. First, the Chinese are providing such support for Russia (and buying lots of Russian oil through a pipeline) that the immediate economic impact is being pushed back. Had the US not changed sides and the Chinese not supported Russia, the Ukrainian campaign would have had a greater impact now. However the Russians believe with Trump as president and China behind them, that time is on their side.

The real debate I heard here remains the most complex one. Do they threaten to do to Moscow or St Petersburg what the Russians have been doing repeatedly to Kyiv or Dnipro. They do not want to do it, clearly. However, as they are fighting for their very existence and the support of their partners remains so erratic, this question remains in the balance.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.