Weekend Update #161: Not A Bad Week For Ukraine
Truth, Democracy and Corruption, Possible High Command Changes, Are European Gloves Coming Off?
Hello All,
The big story this week is not hard to pinpoint. The US Government under the rule of Donald Trump is more and more openly operating as an ally/agent/protector of Vladimir Putin’s dictatorial rule in Russia. Trump even employs and trusts someone who at this point could be called an active Russian agent of influence. And for months, it seems, the US government, under Trump, has been working on a plan to sell Ukraine to Russia in exchange for personal benefit for the president’s inner circle. Soon, a US delegation will be arriving in Moscow, perhaps to complete the deal.
Considering such developments, how can this be called “not a bad” week for Ukraine. Well, it starts with one simple word—truth. While people, particularly in Europe, might be shocked at what has happened this week, and there was a good Guardian article about that realization, they should not have been. The truth is and was that this was always in the cards. This was always Trump’s plan and from the moment he was elected to his second term (now more than a year ago) Europeans needed to understand that they were on their own. They needed to prepare to support Ukraine on their own, to stop deferring to the USA, to prepare the continent greater for strategic autonomy and self-defense.
That they did not can be the subject for recriminations at another time. Now the truth seems to be realized, and that alone makes it a good week for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. And that is not the only reason. It was also a good week for democracy and Ukraine, with real developments that show the Ukrainian government is operating under the rule of law (unlike some other governments it must be said).
So all in all not a bad week. I am not saying that to be portray optimism or that this will all end well. That the US Government is being run as a criminal enterprise is perhaps the most dangerous development of my life. However it is better to grasp that reality than pretend otherwise.
Truth
This week saw the last gasp of the hope that Trump might do the right thing that has governed so much policy making and reporting in Europe. That gasp came from the extreme hope that Trump’s policies towards Russia and Putin were not really his, but were the brainchild of his loyal servant Steve Witkoff. That hope was supercharged for a few moments early in the week when Bloomberg released a transcript (how the recording was released alone is important, see last segment) of a conversation between Witkoff and Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov. Note, the conversation took place on October 14 (that date will be important later). In a nutshell, Witkoff was working with the Russians to present their plan to Trump in the most effective way (for Putin). It was classic agent of influence stuff. For more details, I put out this piece on the day.
This story exploded many of the myths that people had been using to praise Trump, particularly those who instantly jumped to support the to a large degree Moscow-written 28-point plan of last week. The New York Times wrote a story which showed just how foolish/mendacious many of these Trump flunkeys had been. They had been praising Trump for his mostly non-existent steps to aid Ukraine while refusing to recognize what was staring them in the face; that Trump was and is working with Putin. Here is an excerpt from that piece, with well known Trump apologists in action.
Up until last week, even past critics of Mr. Trump’s approach had praise for his willingness to bring pressure to bear against Mr. Putin. The United States sanctioned Russia’s two biggest oil companies in October, crimping Moscow’s ability to pay for the war. American weapons and intelligence kept flowing to Ukraine. Mr. Trump called off a summit with Mr. Putin in Hungary five days after announcing it, declaring that it would be a “wasted meeting.”
American policy toward Ukraine was “far better than any of us could have dreamed of, given the ups and downs in the course of the administration’s handling of the Ukraine war,” said Andrew S. Weiss, the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But the transcripts of leaked phone calls published by Bloomberg on Tuesday show that Mr. Witkoff and Russian officials were working behind the scenes in October on a new diplomatic push. On Oct. 14, Mr. Witkoff spoke to Yuri Ushakov, Mr. Putin’s foreign policy adviser, encouraging the Russian president to call Mr. Trump before an upcoming visit by Mr. Zelensky.
On Oct. 29, Bloomberg reported, Mr. Ushakov held a call with Kirill Dmitriev, an economic envoy for Mr. Putin who had just met with Mr. Witkoff in Miami. Mr. Dmitriev told Mr. Ushakov that he believed that a forthcoming U.S. peace plan would be as close “as possible” to Russia’s proposals.
This story, as said above, sparked off the last spasm of Trump-hope. You see, it was said, it was always Witkoff, not Trump. Witkoff is the baddy and Trump is merely the doddering old fool who has been lead astray. Well, that vision lasted a few hours before the final reality was made brutally clear. This was Trump, always Trump. The President came out and stated publically that not only was he very happy with Witkoff’s behavior, but that Witkoff and possibly Jared Kushner would be off to Moscow soon. Ironically, not long after, Putin came out and defended Witkoff as well.
It was just the start. Two days later, the Wall Street Journal published a story that could end up being the most important during this period. It was about just how emeshed Trump and his cronies business dealing were with the Russian government. Here is a gift link. Please read it.
It turns out that even before Trump was inaugurated, the Russians had developed a plan to restart business with the USA—specifically with people close to the US president. And they knew with whom they were dealing. It seems that starting in August (again, pay attention to the date) the discussions of strengthening business ties between Putin and Trump’s camp picked up exponentially.
At the same time, what was happening was that the Europeans were being sidelined, viewed as a combination irrelevant and obstructive. The article makes clear that getting back to business with Russia is and has been the plan throughout for the Trump administration. Here is an excerpt from the article discussing the business links and their relative closeness to Putin and Trump.
At this point there is little more that can be said. The truth is out there. The idea that Trump would ever do something good for Ukraine is gone. He wants Russia to do well and wants to get back to business with Putin. That this is no longer up for debate (I hope) means that this is a good week for Ukraine. No more illusions.
Democracy and Corruption
Ukrainian democracy showed some real resilience this week. Indeed it arguably showed that at present it is more resilient and less corrupt than US democracy. The Zelensky Administration corruption scandal has been a huge problem for Ukrainian government, but also offered a chance for a fresh start. And this week, arguably the most important step in that fresh start occurred when Zelensky’s long-time Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak, was both raided by anti-corruption agencies and then forced to resign.
Yermak has been a particular figure of fear and loathing for many Ukrainians for years. The more I have visited Ukraine, the more it was made clear just how many people believed he was a detriment to the Ukrainian war effort. This is what was written after my September 2024 trip.
Interestingly, the most distrusted figure in the Ukrainian government seemed to be Andriy Yermak, who runs Zelensky’s office (sort of a super chief of staff). He is considered a block on positive reform and someone who tries to control everything by himself—and not in the best ways. So there is some robust criticism of the government amongst the Ukrainians.
And now he is gone. If this change leads to more of a national unity government in Ukraine, that will be a great thing. There are rumors of General Zaluzhny (now Ukrainian ambassador to the UK) coming back in some role, though at this point he might only do it if it were for the top job. However, if there can be greater unity and transparency brought to Ukrainian politics, that would be a good thing.
Note: I do always think we need to be careful (as with Witkoff) not to use Yermak to explain away the actions of Zelensky. Zelensky put Yermak in post and kept him in post for years. As such, Zelensky is responsible for Yermak’s actions. Zelensky, hopefully, will use this as an opportunity to improve—as ultimately he is the war leader and is the person responsible.
In the end the most important thing demonstrated by the fall of Yermak is that the Ukrainian government both has anti-corruption agencies with some teeth, and the state needs to respect the democratic will of the Ukrainian people. As corruption seems to rise unchecked to grotesque levels in the USA, Ukraine has shown itself to be better and more resilient. If this gives the Ukrainian people more confidence to stand up for what they believe—that is a good thing.
Possible High Command Changes
This is the shortest and the most tenuous section—based entirely on rumor. It is being said in some quarters that with Yermak going, Zelensky might clean house and get new blood in Ukrainian high command. That would mean, ultimately, replacing C-in-C of the armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Like Yermak, Syrskyi is widely distrusted across much of Ukraine and there is a widespread belief that he is in post because of his loyalty to Zelensky and not because of his talents as a commander. There are in Ukraine a number of younger, battle-tested and flexible commanders who could step up and give the military new direction and help bolster morale. If the rumors prove to be true, that would also be a good thing.
Are European Gloves Coming Off?
One of the most important aspects of the two big news stories this week (the Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal ones) was the ultimate source of the evidence used in them. It seems that in both cases there is a real likelihood that as yet unnamed European Intelligence agencies leaked both the transcript of Witkoff and Ulyanov talking, and a report of the Trump administration’s business plans with Russia.
The Wall Street Journal published this piece on the possible transcript leaks, in which Trump administration sources placed the blame on Europeans. While their own story on business links made it clear that Europeans had been playing a role in leaking details about Putin-Trump business links. If you look at the quote above, there was clearly information passed on by a European IC source once in the story—and if you read it closely, you will see this other example.
That European states are now taking active measures to undermine the Trump administration’s efforts to foist a Russian-inspired peace deal on Ukraine, is also a good thing. It is evidence that the reality of the peril Europe is facing has been accepted. It means that they have lost, or at least are losing, hope in the Trump administration—and that means not only hope for American help for Ukraine, but also hope for the US to play a positive role in Europe.
More and more, both confidentially and openly, European voices are warning against relying on Trump and following his lead on Ukraine. If these verbal warnings have been accompanied by active measures to undermine the US narrative, that is a concrete sign that reality is being accepted.
Conclusion—Look at the Dates
Before signing off, I wanted to put the focus on the dates during which US-Russian discussions heightened in the two big stories of the week. In the Wall Street Journal article, it was in August that large steps were taken to work out a business deal between the US and Russia. The Bloomberg story has Witkoff and Ulyanov coordinating actions in mid-October.
The fact that these actions have been going on for months, is important in understanding what has transpired. During the last few months we have heard the most about Trump pivoting to help Ukraine, threatening to send Tomahawk missiles, etc, and even announcing the really tough (or so we were told) oil sanctions on Russia. Now I think we can say clearly that these steps were public disinformation, to make it look like Trump could help Ukraine when really the administration was heavily involved reaching a deal with Russia.
Witkoff and Ulyanov talked on October 14. Trump announces oil sanctions on October 22. Which do you think was the real position of the administration?
And as greater confirmation, I can share with you that I have heard that Trump’s public statements that he thought Ukraine was winning, were also bluff. He remains convinced that Russia is winning the war, wants Russia to win, and is acting with that in mind. US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who has replaced General Kellogg as the Trump representative talking with Ukrainians, has told the Ukrainians that they are losing and if they do not accept this terrible deal, things will only get worse.
This is what Trump believes. The actions in between the Anchorage Summit and today during which he seemed to state the obvious, were to maintain leverage over Ukraine and Europe.
The USA is now the enemy of freedom and democracy in Europe, and that needs to be understood.
Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.
“That the US Government is being run as a criminal enterprise is perhaps the most dangerous development of my life.”
What I wouldn’t give to see those words printed in every major newspaper and broadcast on every major television channel in the country.
The Europeans need to do a lot more. E.g. in the US the visitors have been asked for 80 years about their membership in the Nazi Party and participation in atrocities. The EU should ban all Russian veterans of this war from ever visiting or even overflying Europe, given that virtually all of them are contractors (very much unlike 14 year old German boys conscripted in 1945). They should also make a list of Russian arms manufacturers and banks financing them, then announce that even after the war they will still be sanctioned, and that Russians who still work at those organizations when the new year rolls in, will be banned for life from visiting Europe. This will have a real bite even without the US, as many more middle class Russians visit Europe than the US, and Muscovites especially value that ability.