Weekend Update #143: A Week Which Demonstrates Why Ukraine Is So Important

Ukraine's "Partners" Have Let It Down: The Fate of Graham-Blumenthal

Hello All,

Before I start into the weekend update, I have a personal announcement. My latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars And Why, is now one month from its release in the UK and Europe (it releases the US on October 27).

I will start a special section for pieces on the book in the coming weeks. One thing I wanted to do today is get people’s opinions on what kind of excerpt they would like to read. The publishers have kindly agreed to let me release a few thousand words to substack subscribers—and they will come from the first five chapters (on Power). Before the US release I hope to publish an excerpt from the second five (on War). Here are the titles of the first five.

So a poll—from which chapter would you like to read an excerpt.

If you want to pre-order and save 25%, Waterstones have selected War and Power as one of its special summer sale books. If you add SUMMER25 to the order when you purchase, the discount will be added.

Apologies for all the announcements, but just wanted to get this out. From now on, all War and Power information will come out in posts from a special section.

And now—the weekend update.

A Week Which Demonstrates Why Ukraine Is So Important

This could have been one of the worst weeks of the war for Ukraine. The decision by the Ukrainian government to attack the independence of its anti-corruption agencies, NABU and SAP came as a shock—and not a good one.

Btw—you can check our NABU’s website with English translation here.

The issue of corruption being used to tar and feather Ukraine is a long one. Long before the Russian full-scale invasion, it was argued that corruption was such a problem for Ukraine that both Ukrainian resistance would be crippled and, ultimately, Ukraine itself was not worth backing with serious military force. In the CSIS report I wrote with Eliot Cohen, we discussed how the accusation of corruption was used against Ukraine.

In comparison, what was remarkable was how little corruption was mentioned as an issue for Russia, indeed the general argument was that Russia had corrected its corruption problem.

Now, Ukraine definitely has had real issues with corruption, but unlike Putin’s mafia state, the Ukrainians have put real efforts into trying to combat the issue. Its been part of the social contract between the Ukrainian government and its people, that has helped unify the country since the full-scale invasion.

This is why the announcement at the start of last week that the government was going to politicize the anti-corruption agencies hit like a thunderclap. If you want more details, you can read this Kyiv Independent piece which was released on 22 July.

The motivation for the move is something being discussed across Ukraine. ‘Im hardly an expert in Ukrainian politics, but what many people seem to believe is that these agencies had cases ongoing against some allies of the government, and that was a primary motivating factor.

One of the public reasons given is that NABU and SAP had pro-Russian sympathies, but that seems an odd assertion.

Whatever the reason, the move was a disaster and threatened some real divisions in Ukrainian society. Ukrainian civil society has shown itself resilient and determined over the previous decades. Most famously we have the Maidan, Revolution of Dignity, in 2014, made by the people to demonstrate their commitment to democracy and desire to have a pro-European future.

Maidan Square, Kyiv, 2014

And once again, Ukrainians reacted angrily when it seemed that their commitment to freedom was being undermined. Protests started up almost immediately in Kyiv, and there was condemnation across the country.

Kyiv July 2025

I actually had some Ukrainians urging me to write a piece in the Atlantic about the importance of fighting this move, and I made an enquiry but heard that they had already commissioned one, which I cant wait to read.

Its hard to understate the anger that many Ukrainians, who have seem members of their family and friend circles die, be terribly wounded, or even tortured under Russian captivity, felt. To them this move threatened to imperil Ukraine’s European future and undermine the national unity needed to fight the war.

Moreover, what was fascinating and depressing was that it was Russian disinformation sources that started attacking the protestors, as subversives and troublemakers. This was a regular thing on twitter, I experienced it in my own feed.

This reaction seemed to stun the government and bring it to its senses. Almost immediately President Zelensky who badly screwed up in backing this bill, started rowing back on the move, promising to protect the independence of the agencies. On July 24, an entirely new draft bill had been proposed, which would now guarantee the independence of these agencies—a total climbdown by the government (if it passes, which is still not clear).

It was a breath-taking pivot in just a few days—and showed just why Ukraine’s victory in this war is so important for Europe. This was a spontaneous, national response to a threat against Ukrainian freedom. It showed that the Ukrainian people cared, are not sheep willing to follow any leadership decision, and were determined to safeguard their European future.

Even in the midst of an existential war, they were willing to oppose their government and do so loudly and effectively.

The fact that they did so—and that the government listened—shows what Ukraine has become. Its completely different from today’s Russia, for instance, where rising up against the leadership on an issue of freedom seems impossible to imagine.

Ukraine has made itself into something better—and even when it was partly abandoned (more on that in the next section) its people did not want to go back.

The lesson of the week.

Ukraine's "Partners" Have Let It Down

One of the reasons the Ukrainian government decided to attempt this move, or so I have been told, was that they felt Ukraine’s attempts to reform were now being treated with disdain by its partners, and therefore the Ukrainian government believed it was a move worth the risk.

This disdain comes in two very different ways, one American and one European. The American change is obvious. The US government seems no longer interested at all in combatting corruption-far from it. In many ways the US government has instituted, and advertised, state corruption on a multi-billion $ scale. Do you want to buy some Trump coin—step right up!

The US government under Trump also immediately weakened its anti-bribery laws, and since then its being a wild west of money flowing around the top of the USG—reportedly ;)

The Ukrainian government has seen this, seen the USG cozy up to the corrupt Putin regime, and seemed to conclude that fighting their own corruption was now of secondary importance.

What made the situation worse, however, was what the EU did the week before. They started pouring very cold water on the idea that Ukraine will be able to join the EU anytime soon. Chancellor Merz, for one, came out and said that the earliest Ukraine could be in the EU was 2034. This was fast compared to the Hungarians, who are saying that Ukraine should never be allowed in the EU, but be some permanent buffer state between Russia and the EU (allowing the Russians to attack in the future at their leisure.

And these kinds of messages were heard in Ukraine as well.

So the USA and EU combined basically were telling the Ukrainians that their attempts to fight corruption were irrelevant—and that did seem to provide some ammunition for the Ukrainian government to act.

The most impressive thing is that even seeing what the USA and EU were doing, the Ukrainian people did not back down. They have created one of the most determined civil societies in Europe—and deserve the support of Europeans (even as the EU and USA are letting them down). How many other civil societies would have reacted this way? Certainly, in the USA, the fight against government corruption has so far been a great failure.

The Fate of Graham-Blumenthal

If you set your mind back a few weeks ago, we were being told that the super-duper sanctions bill sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal was definitely going to be voted on by the end of July. We know this because Graham stated on June 29 that President Trump had told him that he would now allow the bill to have a vote, and Graham believed it would pass by the end of July. Other Republican Senators hinted in early July that there would be a vote by the end of the month and that the whole bill would be passed by early August.

I mean, the bill has 83 sponsors out of 100 senators, and supposedly overwhelming support in the House—how could it be blocked?

And yet here we are at the end of July, and the vote in the Senate has been completely shelved for now—and any vote in the House would be impossible until well into September as the House took a very early Summer recess so the Republicans could run away from the Epstein-Trump allegations.

How did this very threatening bill get shelved? Well, the reality is that it was a key element of Trump’s maneuvering a few weeks ago (the pivot to Ukraine which was not a pivot). By saying he was threatening Putin with sanctions in 50 days (early September), Trump did Putin a great favor by killing off Graham-Blumenthal for now. The Republicans, as always, are deferring to him and will not give the bill a vote that they were promising just a few weeks ago.

So, the next time someone talks about how Trump is now helping Ukraine, it might be pointed out that he is helping Russia more.