Weekend Update #137: The Two Weeks Are Up--But Instead Of Sanctions There Are Kisses

The Russian Sumy Offensive; The Golden Rule

Hello All,

Its been an actually relatively quiet week in terms of map changes in Ukraine. The Russian advances, always incremental, slowed from the week before. That being said, the Ukrainians themselves are having an intense internal discussion about what is/has happened in Sumy, so I thought I would discuss that a little.

However, I am starting with the passing of the Trump two-week deadline this week, which amazingly did not result in any new sanctions (or indeed discussion of new sanctions) against Russia. Indeed, this week has reinforced the golden rule which Europe and everyone else must keep in mind. If Putin wants something, eventually so does Trump.

Never Forget The Golden Rule….

The Two Weeks Are Up--But Instead Of Sanctions There Are Kisses

So the two weeks which Trump claimed he needed to decide whether to put super, harsh sanctions on Russia passed this week—and no one said a word. If you want to relive the whole (ridiculous) saga—and of course who would not—it started on May 25 with this tweet. I had a good laugh at the time, and wrote a piece calling Trump the “Gaslighter in Chief”.

This was classic Trump virtue-signalling about Ukraine and Russia. Every once and a while he feels the need to appease the pro-Ukraine group in the Republican Party (which he plays with great political skill it must be said) and make them think that he really is irritated with Putin for doing everything Trump said he would stop him doing. Remember, Trump has demanded that Putin agree to a ceasefire and works out a peace deal.

Well on May 25, Trump reached one of those moments when his normal pro-Putin statements were not going to cut it, as the Russians were daily bombarding Ukrainian cities and causing civilian casualties. So Trump did the minimum, and made this meaningless public statement to show that he was ever so irritated with Putin for continuing to laugh in Trump’s face.

However the press, rather remarkably, made a huge play about the tweet, and acted like these meaningless threats were real. They treated Trump’s statements as a legitimate sign that he was angry with Putin and was really threatening the Russians with sanctions. There were many stories to that effect, if you have the courage to go back and read them.

This was the Washington Post reporting, for instance

Here is the CNN story.

Here is the Politico story.

The Russians however, knew this was all a joke, and even made fun of Trump for pretending to be mad at them. In one of the most belittling statements that they have ever made of a US president (the Russians are aware that they have Trump in their back pocket, and so regularly threaten or insult him) they dismissed him as being “emotional”.

This put Trump in a little bit of a bind. He probably had not wanted to seem so angry with Putin that he might have to do something, and being insulted by the Russians did not make anything better. He also still has to deal with the faux-friends of Ukraine such as Lindsey Graham, who are always talking about sanctioning Russia—yet oddly not doing anything.

So Trump played for time, knowing that the GOP will probably never oppose him and waiting for people to move on to the next issue, as they always do. So Trump, on May 28, said he needed two weeks to decide whether to sanction Putin more, claiming that negotiations were about to have a breakthrough and he did not want to scupper a possible deal. Ho-Ho.

Here is a quote from his press conference making the 2-week gambit.

“We’ll find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not and if he is, we’ll respond a little bit differently but it will take about a week and a half to two weeks,” the U.S. president said Wednesday in response to reporters’ questions at the White House. “They seem to want to do something, but until the document is signed I can’t tell you. Nobody can.”

And guess what? the two week time limit passed last week on Tuesday, June 10 and there was no movement on a peace deal. It was clear Putin was “tapping” the USA along, and yet there nary a mention by Trump or his supporters of new sanctions. Indeed, far from discussing being harsh on Putin, this week it was made clear just how much the US government is in Russia’s thrall. Its more than a little depressing/illustrative that two days after Trump was supposed to make up his mind about new sanctions, the US State Department formally congratulated Russians on their national day (I wrote a free piece on this). And to show just how hollow these threats were, the US also opposed a European move to lower the oil price cap that they will pay Russia—which would have deprived Putin of extra income. Once again, Trump is trying to help Putin.

Trump himself is back to discussing how close he is with Putin and how they are working together to settle the world’s problems. He even boasted yesterday about a birthday call he received from Putin—and mentioned that they could not even bother to say much about the Ukraine war.

So there you have it—another cycle, maybe the most extraordinary yet, of completely meaningless Trump threats, the press doing exactly what he wants and amplifying them to appease the pro-Ukraine Republicans, and then the Trump-Putin love fest reappears and, amazingly, it becomes apparent that Trump does not care in the slightest what Putin is doing in attacking Ukrainian civilians but instead that the US government is now set on protecting Russia.

The only question is whether the press falls for it, the next time?

The Russian Sumy Offensive

This week there was a pretty intense internal discussion going on in Ukraine about what is happening in the far north east Sumy region. The Russians started pushing forward there in early May. And since then they have made some incremental gains. Here is the map today—there has been a Russian penetration of up to 10 kilometers.

So they are now about 15 miles or so from Sumy itself—which they can increasingly bombard with artillery. The Ukrainian stories are worth reading, not only to find out what might be happening, but to get an understanding of how the Ukrainian media is covering their own war.

Here is the Kyiv Independent story on the situation.

And here is the Ukrainska Pravda story as well.

The Russians are certainly pressing here. In the Kyiv Independent story, a Ukrainian company commander discussed Russian tactics.

Speaking to the Kyiv Independent, Volodymyr Martyniak, a company commander in the 22nd Special Purpose Battalion of Ukraine’s 1st Presidential Brigade, said that Russia’s main advantage in Sumy Oblast remained their ability to send wave after wave of lightly-mounted infantry at the Ukrainian defense.

“They are being organized into ultra-minimal teams, of just a couple of people, using the bare minimum of equipment,” he said,” things like quad bikes, other motorized vehicles, motorcycles to move quickly through rough terrain.”

Zelensky certainly realizes that this Russian offensive is something to which he needs to respond. In his evening address on May 12 he tried to allay concerns on the situation. And in doing so its worth noting that Sumy is now the joint first priority along with Pokrovsk.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report – the front line, first and foremost the Pokrovsk direction, the Kursk operation, the border areas of the Sumy region. Our units in the Sumy region are gradually pushing the occupier back. Thank you! I thank every one of our soldiers, sergeants, and officers for this result. Every unit.

Zelensky used practically identical language last night—claiming once again that the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back in the area (though Deep State has not confirmed that).

Particular and very serious attention was given to the Pokrovsk direction and to our Sumy region – especially its border areas. We are managing to push Russian forces out of those areas.

This is certainly a situation worth watching—and the increasing Ukrainian focus on it is important. It seems to be caught up in a number of cross debates. Many (as the Ukrainian stories attest) are unhappy with General Syrskyi’s command and believe that the way he has handled the whole Sumy affair is indicative of his real shortcomings as a military commander. In a nutshell his micromanagement and tendencies have led to far greater Ukrainian losses than should have been the case.

The Golden Rule

Building on the first section of this update, there is something called the Golden Rule, which needs to be understood overall about US policy. The Golden Rule is that Trump wants what Putin wants—even for all his attempted head fakes on the issue. We have just seen one of the best examples of this, and its worth highlighting to try and show how, Europeans in particular, need to understand that Trump is not some even-handed force.

It was seen as starkly on Iran-Israel as it has been in Ukraine. I will not go into the saga in detail here, but its worth noting that after acting all tough on Iran, Trump has actually been wanting to arrange a deal with Iran, very much along similar lines to that which was done by President Obama (and which Trump heavily criticized and then walked away from).

The Netanyahu government had very different ideas, and this week, after a 60-day cooling off period had expired, decided to resort to a massive aerial campaign against Iran to try, at least, to severely damage the Iranian nuclear program and to kill many of Iran’s senior military commanders. I wrote this piece on the campaign from an air power perspective—and what indeed Iran might do in response.

Now, Trump’s responses have been typical—in a macabre kind of way. When the reports started coming in about the Israeli strikes and their initial successes (note—this campaign has a long way to run, and trying to evaluate it now is foolish), Trump seemed to jump on the Israeli bandwagon and claim that he was supportive of the Israeli campaign and that the killed Iranians deserved it.

The truth was actually that Trump had been informed about the attacks by the Israelis, at the last possible minute, and had deliberately kept the US out. However, he had to try and act all tough.

Then reality kicked in. After the birthday love fest with Putin, Trump released the tweet in the first section above, which was a call to stop the fighting. And then just a few hours ago—as the Israeli air campaign continues unabated— Trump sent out another tweet which clearly disassociated the US from it.

People reading this as a threat against Iran are getting it backwards. It is actually a pledge to Iranians not to attack them if they do not attack US facilities.

Putin clearly wants this issue to be settled. Iran has been a great ally of Russia, providing crucial military capabilities (the original shahed designs) and strong diplomatic support. The last thing Putin wants is a new government in Tehran that might be less amenable.

As such, Trump is making it clear that he is not part of the campaign and wants to make a deal.

Its the golden rule—what Putin wants, Trump wants.

Please understand that Europeans.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.