Weekend Update #121: The Mafia State Takes Over the USA
Hi All,
We have witnessed a week that was both expected (if you read this substack) and yet extraordinary at the same time. The US government, under President Donald Trump, dropped all pretense that it was a friend of Ukraine, or wanted a democratic state to survive, or even would stand in common cause with its long-standing European allies, etc, etc. Instead, what became apparent as the week went on was that Trump was laying out a full-service system of cooperation with Putin and that the screws were being put on Ukraine (and Europe). It was two mafia states aligning, a phrasing that I started to use this week.
I mean every word of this. The USA is now run by gangsters who both want to ally with other gangsters, and are using threats of destruction and violence to get their way. They certainly don’t respect any law other than “The Boss is Right” and “Power is All that Matters”. Musk came out and said it on Twitter—all power comes from the president who is empowered by the volk, oops I mean people.
btw, one of the reasons I always thought Trump was out to screw Ukraine is because I paid attention to what Don Jr and Musk in particular were saying. Read both of their twitter feeds if you dare, and you will get a constant diet of anti-Ukraine lies and Pro-Putin love bombs.
The emergence of the mafia state has huge implications for all the parties involved in the war for the freedom of Ukraine. As such, this week the update will go through the developments that influenced all of them. So here we have it—the dawn of a new world with profound implications for international relations.
The Trump and Putin Families Have a Sit Down
The week had a number of examples of two of mafia families in the world (The Putins and the Trumps) coming together. These examples were both open and more subtle.
In the first case, there was a meeting of the some of the underbosses in the families, held interestingly in Riyadh, a bastion of democratic freedom. The expertise around the table was itself notable. Trump sent two people he has broken in spirit and was using as cover to traditional Republicans, that would be Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. Both of these were people who had, unfortunately, given backers of Ukraine some hope as they had both been supporters of Ukraine after the initial full-scale invasion. However, both are now broken figures, who desperately mouth Trumpist statements to try and get crumbs of recognition from the mafia boss. Think of them as Reek working for Ramsay Bolton. The third representative was more interesting—Trump’s fellow real-estate baron from New York City Steve Witkoff who is a special Trump emissary, was probably the most important.
The US delegation’s reactions to the meetings show how productive they were from a mafia family point of view. Rubio and Waltz gave a press conference (Witkoff was not quoted there) which was pretty gushing. The Trump family is on its way to settling all differences with the Putin family—indeed they agreed four steps that were all high on the Putin agenda. Here is how Rubio started the press conference.
SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, I would start by saying we’ve agreed on four principles that I think are important. First is that we are going to work – we’re going to point our teams’ respectively to work very quickly to reestablish the functionality of our respective missions in Washington and in Moscow. For us to be able to continue to move down this road, we need to have diplomatic facilities that are operating and functioning normally.
The second point is that we’re going to appoint a high-level team from our end to help negotiate and walk – work through the end of the conflict in Ukraine in a way that’s enduring and acceptable to all the parties engaged.
The third point is to begin to work at a high level as well to begin to discuss and think about and examine both the geopolitical and economic cooperation that could result from an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Obviously, we have to see that conflict come to a successful and enduring end in order for that to be possible.
And the last thing we agreed to that is that, while our teams are going to be working on all of this, the four of us who were here today – the five of us that were here today are going to remain engaged in this process to make sure that it’s moving along in a productive way.
Let me quickly outline why.
The first point is an intelligence priority for Russia. It can get its spies and their infrastructure back into full operations in the USA. The Russians have lost alot of their intelligence capacity with the reduction of their personnel in the US capital—that is now over. Its back to cooperation.
The second and fourth points show how the US wants to settle this war without Ukrainian input. The US and Russia will basically establish a permanent, high-level, bi-lateral group to try come up with a common position (which they will almost certainly try to foist on Ukraine). Ukraine cant be trusted at these mafia family talks as its actually a democratic state.
The third point is ominous. Trump hates sanctions and wants to get back to business with Russia as soon as possible (indeed Rubio gave the most tortured answer later in the press conference on this question). A few days before Trump’s inauguration I said sanctions would be the key test of where we are heading—it seems that the decision is to try and find a way to lessen them with Russia.
To give an even better idea of how sanctions are probably going to be downgraded sooner rather than later, Witkoff, who is probably the most truly influential of the Riyadh trio, gushed publicly at an investment forum just over a day ago about how he was developing a friendship with Putin and how Trump was pushing for a deal. Here was a verbatim quote.
"First I had the support of President Trump which is a really big deal. Secondly we have a really good relationship with the Saudis…. They assured us that this was real... and so to me it became worth the trip. And so we went. And it was a great trip. I spent a lot of time with President Putin
So the US is openly and quickly moving to ally itself with Putin. This was emphasized by how the US has reframed the Russian invasion of Ukraine itself. The US is now pushing for a UN resolution that marks the anniversary of the full-scale invasion without any specific mention that Russia started the war, that Ukraine’s territory had been invaded, or that Ukraine is the victim under international law. Here is one report on the US proposal.
The draft US resolution is brief. It mourns “the tragic loss of life throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict” and reiterates ”the principal purpose of the United Nations, as expressed in the United Nations Charter, is to maintain international peace and security and to peacefully settle disputes.”
The draft resolution “implores a swift end to the conflict and further urges a lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia.”
So both publicly and privately the Trump family and the Putin family are now cooperating with Russia and planning for an even closer relationship. Btw, you do not have to take my word for all this. Putin himself hailed the developments of the past week as a great success, with a sense of satisfaction he could barely suppress.
Ukraine is Made Offers “It Cant Refuse”
Mafia families love to boss around and threaten those they think are weak —and exploit them for whatever gain they can. That is certainly what the Trump Family started doing to Ukraine this week (though they might not understand what they are facing in Ukraine).
The famous line that “I’m gonna make him an offer he can’t refuse” is one of the most quotable moments in the greatest gangster film of all time—The Godfather.
It was the one that ended up with the Hollywood Producer, Jack Woltz, waking up to a severed horse’s head in his bed.
This is exactly the tactic that the USA is taking now towards Ukraine. They are threatening Zelensky personally and trying to force a crippling economic deal on Ukraine at the same time.
The threats on Ukraine/Zelensky are not even being repressed. Zelensky is being told by White House sources being quoted in the press, that its no longer safe for him to stay in Ukraine, and he should flee the country if ne knows whats good for him.
A second source close to Trump concurred with the assessment and suggested that “the best case for [Zelensky] and the world is that he leaves to France immediately.”
Trump is also (projecting as always) calling Zelensky a “dictator”, and saying Zelensky’s approval is only 4% (where the hell did he get that figure—its actually over 50%). He really cant keep his personal hatred of Zelensky under control. At one point it boiled over in public and Trump made a direct threat. He said that if Zelensky did not agree a mineral deal with the USA, “…things are not gonna make him happy.”
The sad thing is that while Trump is a gangster, he is far less articulate than the ones in the movies.
Indeed, the mineral “deal” is probably the best indication of mafia tactics that we can see. The USA is trying to dictate a deal to Ukraine that calls for the Ukrainians to hand over all their money to the USA and get nothing in return. We have an idea of what the US is asking for from Tymofiy Mylovanov, the President of the Kyiv School of Economics and former Economics Minister, who is plugged deeply into the Ukrainian government. Here is how he has outlined the US proposal.
1. Ukraine pays 50% of its oil, gas, and mineral revenues to the US (fund)
2. until the fund reaches 500 billion
3. The U.S. 100% owns the fund
4. For every new dollar of the U.S. aid to Ukraine, it pays to the fund 2 dollars. That’s immediate return of 100% on any U.S. aid to Ukraine
So basically the US gets 50% of Ukrainian raw material wealth for the foreseeable future—and that is simply payback for past US aid (which was not given with the expectation of being paid back and which has paid enormous strategic dividends to the USA). Moreover, if the USA gives Ukraine any more aid, the USA gets an immediate doubling of the money in return (basically the USA will force Ukraine to pay double of a very highly inflated price to begin with).
Of course the reality is that the USA is not promising any new aid or security if it signs the deal. The White House is briefing exactly this to the press. Its basically a drastic overpayment for aid that was promised to help Ukraine live.
Of course, mafia states don’t care about honor, dignity, freedom or even living up to past bargains. They believe in screwing the weak out of all they can get—and as Trump has said of Ukraine, that he believes that they don’t hold “any cards” that they can effectively play.
He even admits openly he is having great talks with Putin and not with Ukraine.
The one problem the USA might face is that in Ukraine it is facing a people desperate and determined. The Ukrainians are not weak. They might indeed reject this deal regardless.
And ultimately that could be the mafia boss dream for the Trump family. They make Ukraine an offer that they know Ukraine cannot accept, and if Ukraine turns it down, the Trump Family can walk away and more openly align with the Putin Family. Do not underestimate the chances of this.
Today Will Determine Whether Europe Can Adjust to the Mafia State
I will write much more about this in the coming weeks—but we simply do not know at this point whether European states are still thinking that they can cut a deal with the the Trump Family or whether they are capable of thinking and acting on their own.
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.
However, if the CDU/CSU wins and can put together a coalition with the Greens as a major partner—it will be the best possible outcome for Europe and Ukraine. The CDU leader Frederich Merz, in the last few hours started speaking as if he understood that the USA is now out of the game for free and democratic states in Europe. In a statement that would have been inconceivable days ago, he said Germany might need to seek cover under the French and British nuclear umbrellas.
To say that just before a general election, to acknowledge that Germany cannot trust the mafia state of the USA, was no accident. It must be viewed now as something that the German people can understand and moreover can support.
So watch the German elections closely—they will tell us a great deal about the future direction of Europe. Will Europeans be happy to remain playthings of the mafia states or will they, perhaps, be willing to stand up for everything that they have said they believed in?
Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.
Ukraine should announce ASAP that the military parade on the Red Square on May 9 will be a legitimate military target, including not only troops and equipment, but also Putin and military commanders standing next to him, and urge Russia civilians and foreign leaders not to serve as Putin's human shields. That alone will probably be enough to keep Trump away.
How on earth could this have happened to the US? It looks like nearly half of the country voted for a protection racket and is totally fine with it. The other half is suffering from a bystander effect. It's really shocking from a European point of view. It's not the people of Europe that are at fault in the first place, this time it's the people of the US that wilfully voted a dictator in the White House. Really, you should all take a look in the mirror and repent in a Walk of Shame.