We need to scrap the Great Power concept: Part 1

Why it matters--looking at the Russo-Ukraine War

Hello all, I started writing my midweek update last night, which was discussing the state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive which is in a phase that seems dominated by artillery/MLRS, UAVs, and light forces, when I heard from Foreign Affairs, that an article of mine was about to appear. It did this morning, and as such, I think it might be worthwhile to pivot to that for this piece. It comes from some reflections on how in particular Russian and Ukrainian power were presented before February 24, 2022, but tries to expand on that to make a larger point. Here is a link—it still seems to be out of paywall if you can get to it soon.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theres-no-such-thing-great-power

Those of you who have been reading for a while might remember that a few months ago I started an attempt to organize a new model for understanding state power. The one that had been very widely used before February 24, 2022 was, in a word, too ‘weapons-centric’. Russian was regularly called a great power because of its supposed military might. There was talk of Russian air power, Russian fast-moving BTGs, Russian Electronic Warfare capabilities and, of course, Russian nuclear weapons. On the other hand, much less attention was paid to the glaring weaknesses in the Russian system (weak economy, corrupt dictatorship, lagging technological base, etc etc).

As the article hopefully argues, a military matters enormously in what makes up a power, but a military must be understood as the creation of a number of other factors. A military is not just some entity in and of itself, it is a product of an economic/technological base which is filtered by both politics/leadership and society.

For those of you who read the earlier piece, you might understand that there has been a shift in the way of presenting the issue of power. When I first started writing about it on my substack, I put forward the notion of the ‘Pyramid of Power’.

Having done more research and thinking about the question, I dont think the pyramid is actually the right way to understand the process. Instead its probably best to see the power creation process as a form of filtration (Im coming desperately close to creating the coffee-filter of power, but havent quite gotten there yet).