We Need to Rethink Our Assumptions About Nuclear Weapons Use

One of the Strategic Purposes of the Kursk Offensive

Hi All,

I was struck by the messaging of the Ukrainian government over the last 24 hours—and just how it has tied the need for long-range strike into the strategic purpose of the Kursk Offensive. Its both an immediate question, and at the same time a broad one about how and when nuclear weapons might be used. What Ukraine is doing, is driving an invasion force directly through an existing consensus—basically saying the emperor has no clothes when it comes to nuclear weapons usage. The Ukrainians are saying all your assumptions and strategic plans on nuclear weapons are wrong—and they seem to be right. The implications of this are profound.

The Kursk Offensive and Nuclear Red-Lines

The Kursk Offensive by Ukraine clearly has a number of strategic objectives. There is an attempt to force the Russians to redeploy forces to try and stop it (and to protect the Russian border as a whole). There is the attempt to politically embarrass Vladimir Putin by showing that he cant protect the very soil of Russia itself. There is an attempt to demonstrate to the world that the Russian Army remains deeply flawed. And there is the objective of destroying Russian forces as they have to be sent to try and stop the Ukrainians offensive. Its one of the reasons that the offensive makes strategic sense for Ukraine—it has a large number of potential benefits, from the battlefield to geopolitics.

However one other possible benefit—or at least strategic goal—has risen to the fore in the last 24 hours. It shows the final hollowness of all the nuclear threats that have been used for years to limit aid to Ukraine. This is actually a profound moment in intellectual thinking—as the Ukrainians are driving a coach and horses (or more obviously a Bradley IFV) directly through almost all earlier assumptions about when and how nuclear weapons will be used. They are invading, taking and possibly holding the sovereign soil of a nuclear power—and in doing so they are upending everyone’s way of thinking about nuclear weapons.