We Have Witnessed A Historic Failure of Leadership

But Ukrainian Resistance Provides A Chance To Make Things Right

Hi All,

We have witnessed an extraordinary failure over the last year. The failure saw European leadership fall into of the greatest trap that policy makers face. That trap is to see what you want to see in the world, not what is actually there.

Its an amazingly easy trap into which to fall. In World War II, Stalin almost destroyed the USSR by doing precisely this between 1939 and 1941. He refused to see what Hitler really was (an extreme nationalist set out to destroy the USSR) and instead Stalin saw Hitler as a possible partner even proto-ally in a war against the western capitalists. Stalin thus signed the Nazi-Soviet Pact, flooded the German war economy with natural resources, and all the while dismissed any reports that Hitler might attack him as deliberate disinformation. In seeing what he wanted to see and not what was there, Stalin made Germany much stronger than it would have been otherwise and almost destroyed his own country.

Stalin and Hitler—the difference in war leadership is that the former escaped from the fatal trap and the latter never did.

Luckily for him, Stalin learned the right lesson after this and adjusted after Hitler attacked. The Soviet dictator understood then that Franklin Roosevelt, for instance, was keen to work with him and parlayed that understanding into massive American aid for the Soviet war effort.

Certain leaders never can escape from the trap of seeing what they want to see instead of what is actually staring them in the face. Hitler, for instance, had a fantastical view of how the war was going, what Germany could accomplish, and whether the alliance against him might fall apart. The result was that when his self-deception came to an end, he had no alternative but shooting himself while entombed deep in a concrete bunker under the streets of Berlin.

European leaders, of all the major countries, and that includes Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland (and others) have been fooling themselves about Trump for over a year. They refused to see what he was and what he would most like do if he returned to the Oval Office; a cozying up to Putin, the cutting off of Ukraine, and the de facto end of the North Atlantic Alliance. As such, European leaders though they had ample time did nothing to prepare for such an eventuality. Indeed, they arguably made things worse by thinking they could work with Trump and massaging his monstrous ego—gambling so much on what they wanted to see that they seemed actually to embolden Trump.

In the last few days there are now more and more signs that European leaders are now seeing what is there with Trump and not what they desperately told themselves was there. There has been a noticeable change from even two to three days ago. After the Zelensky-Trump Oval Office ambush, there was some pressure by European leaders for Zelensky to apologize. From Mark Rutte, to Peter Mandelson (the UK ambassador to the USA) and others, there was a steady chorus that Ukraine needed to patch things up with Trump.

The only problem of course, was that these people were asking for the impossible. And Zelensky, btw, never did apologize. He said he regretted how the meeting in the Oval Office went, but took no personal responsibility for having made it so. This is exactly what he said:

Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.

Now, thankfully, the European chorus for Zelensky to search for some mythical deal to appease Trump is dying out. More and more, senior European voices are speaking what they should have said months ago (but never could bring themselves to believe) that Trump is not a defender of Europe, that he is a friend of Russia, and that if anyone is going to help Ukraine—it will be European states.

Last night President Macron of France (who has been consistently good at speeches, though not always at actions) admitted certain things publicly to the French nation. You can find a text in English of his whole address here.

Macron from the very start of the address admitted that the USA was no longer to be trusted, that Russia was the enemy, and that Ukraine was the vital issue.

I know that you are legitimately concerned about the historic events that are shaking up the world order. The war in Ukraine, which has resulted in almost a million deaths and injuries, continues unabated. The United States of America, our ally, has changed its position on this war, supporting Ukraine less and leaving doubt as to what will happen next.

At the same time, the same United States intends to impose tariffs on products from Europe. Finally, the world continues to grow ever more brutal, and the threat of terrorism continues unabated. All in all, our prosperity and security have become more uncertain.

It has to be said that we are entering a new era. The war in Ukraine has now been going on for more than three years. From day one, we decided to support Ukraine and sanction Russia.

And we were right to do so, because it is not only the Ukrainian people who are courageously fighting for their freedom, but it is also our security that is under threat. If one country can invade its neighbour in Europe with impunity, then no one can be sure of anything any more, and the law of the strongest will apply, and peace can no longer be guaranteed on our own continent. History has taught us that.

More importantly, the rhetoric around Europe seems to be being backed up by resources this time. The incoming German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has started the process of actually spending money to help Europe look after itself. The infamous German debt brake will be lifted under his rule, and he will spend hundreds of billions of euros on infrastructure and defense. As he said yesterday, in words that are very different from any German chancellor since the Berlin Wall came down:

"In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, the rule for our defence now has to be 'whatever it takes',".

If Germany truly does open the productive taps, that is the definition of a European game changer. Germany retains an impressive productive capacity, with high quality engineering and manufacturing experience. It could alone produce far more than Russia—if it actually mobilized its economy.

So the signs are finally heading in the right direction—after a colossal failure to see the world for what it was, European leaders are coming to realize the peril that the continent faces.

Ukraine Has Given European Leaders The Chance to Make This Right

If Europe’s leaders until now had failed this crucial test of leadership, the amazing thing is that they still have a chance to make things right. This might come as a shock to some (including Trump) who seem to have convinced themselves over the past year that Ukraine was clearly losing and Russia was on the road to an inevitable victory.

The truth is, that Ukraine has given Europe the precious gift of time. The Ukrainian defense against Russian attacks has taken a enormous toll on Russia’s fighting capabilities and the Russian offensives have steadily been losing steam for the last two months. Now, Russian advances have slowed to a below-snail’s pace. Eliot Cohen and I will have an article out in The Atlantic shortly which goes through this and shows that far from having no “cards” to play, Ukraine is able to continue fighting and Russia is weaker than people understand. More on that later.

NB. The analytical failure of the last year deserves as much study as the failure before Feb 24, 2022, which Professor Cohen and I have written about extensively. This recent failure was arguably worse, because there were two years of war to see beforehand which should have provided useful real-world understanding of what was happening. My view is that at least some of this error came from an analytic community desperate to try and restore the reputation of the Russian Army—which they had praised to the skies before Feb 2022. Sadly, they had a great deal of public influence, with Donald Trump speaking their narrative almost exactly.

We are not alone. There are other works by people with an understanding of the real situation in Ukraine that the Ukrainians can fight on without the USA. This article by the former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk is particularly good on this point.

Ukraine will not simply fold up shop without the USA, it can continue to extract an enormous toll on the Russians, so much so that by the end of 2025 the Russians will be in serious trouble if they want to continue the war.

However the key to this continuing resistance is Europe filling the void that the USA has left behind. What Ukrainian resistance has done is given Europe time that it can no longer waste. Europe must act on the words of Macron and Merz, treat Ukraine as a vital ally whose future will determine the future of Europe.

In fact, Ukraine aided by Europe can destroy the plans of Putin and Trump. The two of them seem very much to have also fallen into the great leadership trap. They have talked themselves into believing that Ukraine is weak and Europe would never do enough to help the Ukrainians fight. They seemed to think that if the USA cut off Ukraine, that would basically decide things—that Ukraine would be doomed and Europe would be cowed. That might very well be wrong.

Of course if Putin and Trump are right and if European leaders squander this opportunity that Ukrainian resistance has provided, Europe’s leaders will end up in the pantheon of the worst strategic decision makers in the history of foreign affairs.

NB I dont want to keep writing lists of what European leaders should do. Longer term readers of this substack will have seen me do this many times. More than a year ago, I wrote these ten steps for European states, and I think they still hold up very well. The need to sideline Hungary and focus on UAV production, for instance, are still apt.