We are in a Distinct Phase of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive

And the Ukrainians are in no rush

After a brief and nonsensical flurry of articles and claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was failing, things seem to have settled down. That is good, as people have recalibrated their expectations of where the Ukrainians are in their counteroffensive and, just as important, how long it might take until their present operations moves from the destruction phase to once again attempt some operational maneuver. To understand that, its probably best to talk about what phase we are in now.

The Phase of Destruction of Russian Artillery Capabilities

German Hensoldt COBRA counterbattery Radar of a type now in operation with Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/5/2179074/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-counterbattery-radar-advantage?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Something quite stark has happened in what the Ukrainians are targeting over the last few weeks. They have upped enormously the amount of effort they are devoting to the destruction of Russian artillery and MLRS systems. The increase is stark, and on average it seems that Ukrainian claims (used as a relative measure of effort—not as gospel truth for the number of units destroyed) has gone up by almost 200%. If you look at the claims of the Ukrainian high command as of this morning, you will see that they say they have destroyed 4330 Russian artillery systems and 658 MLRS systems since February 24, 2022. That works out to almost exactly 10 systems per day (4988 systems destroyed in 497 days).

But if you look at how many systems the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy since June 20, you will see how many more per day they are now saying are being hit. Its not just one or two days, its a much higher rate of destruction on every day (except for June 28).

Overall, Ukraine claims to have destroyed 492 Russian artillery systems in 17 days—almost 29 per day.