Watch Belarus, Indeed

The Last Few Days Have Revealed A Great Deal

Hi All,

Last weekend, the second section in the update was entitled “Watch Belarus”. It was noticeable how in the week leading up to that piece, the language between Ukraine and Belarus, arguably one of two allies with which Russia cannot wage this war (the other is China), had changed notably. In particular, Belarus’s dictator, the nasty and thuggish Aleksandr Lukashenka, had all of a sudden, tried to make nice with the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian response, led by President Zelensky, was to apply even more pressure on Putin’s vital ally.

Sadly, Lukashenka has a rat-like sense of survival, and the fact that he was changing tack so dramatically and publicly meant that his perceptions of how the war was going were clearly “adjusting”.

If I Were Lukashenka, I Would Sweat Too

Here was the key part from the update.

The last few days have shown, if anything, that what is happening here might be even more important than understood.