Ukrainians Changing the Narrative

Also: Further Signs the Counteroffensive is Succeeding?

The last few substacks Ive sent out have probably been a little ‘ranty’ (not sure that is a word but you probably know what I mean). Its been so frustrating to see anonymous sources and western analysts make what seemed to be ridiculous criticisms about the Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is not just an academic question—it is one that can have real impact on future support for Ukraine and could have real impact quickly in the halls of Congress. For those who have followed me for a while will know that when it comes to public opinion and foreign/policy, I’m persuaded that two things really matter—they are partisan identity and perception of victory. In other words, public support for Ukraine in the US will be determined by these two variables more than anything else—and all the attempts to undermine Ukraine in the press were more dangerous to US support for Ukraine than anything else.

Why it Matters that Ukraine Changes the Narrative—and Fast

When it comes to partisanship, it is now definite that partisanship matters. Republicans are more likely to support wars or overseas actions such as support for Ukraine, if they are started by Republican presidents, and vice versa. Certainly we have seen ample evidence of this in every conflict since the end of the Cold War. People with strong partisan identity are far more likely to support or oppose wars based on the President’s party identification.