Ukraine Was Just Knifed In The Back
And The Ukrainians Know It
Hi All,
An update on the big story of last night—which reveals the real peril that Ukraine and Europe find themselves in when dealing with the Trump Administration.
Yesterday the US and Russia can only be said to have brutally outmaneuvered the Ukrainians (and Europeans) and placed them on the horns of dilemma. The “Black Sea Ceasefire” as it is being called, was negotiated by the USA in one way with Ukraine and then another way with Russia. The result is that unless Ukraine now rejects it, or if Europe comes to its aid and does not agree to its sanctions busting terms—Russia will be handed a huge win and Ukraine will find itself in a more perilous position.
I’ve been trying to find out from some Ukrainians that I trust what happened, and here is my best estimate based on what I have found.
First: The US and Ukraine negotiated about a Black Sea Ceasefire on its own (no strings attached). The Ukrainians were not wild about it—as they have in many ways already achieved many of its goals on their own. The Ukrainians have already cleared the the Russian Black Sea Fleet from almost all of the Black Sea and forced it out of Crimea into Russia. At the same time, the Ukrainians have opened up shipping out of Odesa, and are now utilizing the port successfully to ship out grain, etc.
The US, however, put great pressure on the Ukrainians to agree to the Black Sea Ceasefire for a few reasons. It was said that it would be a sign of Ukrainians willingness to make peace, that it would keep the US happy, that it would restrict Russian attacks from the Black Sea on Ukraine itself, and that it would provide further security for commercial shipping from Ukrainian ports. Then there was the kicker—clearly the US told Zelensky that if Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire and the Russians violated it, that this would trigger much greater US sanctions on Russia.
How do we know this last point? Well, Zelensky came out and said it openly—that Ukraine would want more US weapons and harsher sanctions on Russia if the Russians broke the agreement.
In the end, the US and Ukrainians reached an agreement on a ceasefire that seems to have been limited and had no special relief or benefits for Ukraine (nor Russia). Here is the White House statement on the US agreement with Ukraine—its pretty simple.
Second: While the US was negotiating one Black Sea ceasefire with the Ukrainians (above) they were negotiating a very different one with the Russian. We might say this is the one that really reflects the Trump administration’s views. The US was agreeing as part of the ceasefire to work with Russia to weaken (perhaps fatally) the sanctions regime now in place against the Russian state.
Here is a picture of the whole White House statement on what the US agreed with Russia (its very different from the above statement about the talks with Ukraine). Now, the US is going very far to help Russia, and is agreeing as part of the ceasefire to bust sanctions on Russia as soon as it can. The second bullet point is the killer one.
This agreement would basically drive a coach and horses through the present sanctions regime. Any Russian company that claimed to be working in “agricultural and fertilizer” products would be allowed to ship goods in and out of Russia (and I’m sure the security protocols will be almost non-existent). Moreover, to do this, the US seemed to be willing to plug Russia back into the world financial system (“enhance access to…payment systems for such transactions…”). This is a bland way of saying something momentous. Russia should be accepted back into world banking, insurance, etc.
Its hard to state the depth of these US concessions to Russia—and the fact that the US is clearly happy with these concessions.
Third. The US announced the ceasefire to great fanfare—Trump is bringing peace to the world! However only then did it become apparent that there was the conditional agreement with Russia that the US had agreed on the side and that the Russians were expecting this to be implemented soon as part of the ceasefire. The Russian statement to this affect was clear and unambiguous.
The US has so far not backed away from the deal its brokered with Russia—and this means that the ball is in the Ukrainians court and now they must either break with the USA or accept a deal that could be a huge win for Russia. It took a while for the Ukrainians to accept the reality of the box into which Trump and Putin had maneuvered them. However, during the course of last night—that reality became very apparent. Here is just one taster—a Ukrainian MP, Oleksandra Ustinova on Substack. She says in her biography that she is an adviser to the Defense Department and I’ve been told she has very good links with Defense Minister Umerov. You might not know of her as she has very few followers, but you should pay attention to what she says about the Black Sea ceasefire as she wrote a forensic piece about how the agreement was a “betrayal” of Ukraine.
Here is how it starts.
It is very difficult to see Ustinova writing this if the Ukrainian government did not understand now how it had been betrayed.
Fourth. This deal stinks and would be a huge win for Russia if it were implemented. A few things might happen. The Trump administration, having crafted it with Putin, might get cold feet and not push to implement it over the heads of the Ukrainians and Europeans. That would be best—but don’t put too much hope on Trump not working with Putin.
If the US-Russian end of the deal stands, then Ukraine will be left either taking the deal or walking away. It can walk away, if European states back it. The participation of Europe will be needed to bust the sanctions (unless the US decides to just ally with Russia fully and openly). However, this will require some real fortitude and determination by European states to stand up to the USA.
Regardless, the last day (including the Atlantic Story I wrote about on Monday) has once again confirmed where we are.
The US is now trying to subvert Ukraine (and Europe) and work with Russia. The US wants to end the sanctions as soon as possible and start making money with Russia. It cares nothing about the success of freedom and democracy in Europe/Ukraine and actually seems to wish to undermine both if possible.
It is up to Ukraine and Europe now to look after themselves. The Black Sea ceasefire deal is screaming that loudly.
Yes. In 30 years of diplomacy I never saw anything like this (from anyone). I can't see the EU going along with this. The long-term costs to the US are huge (even if we can minimise the short-term costs to Ukraine).
Treacherous