Ukraine and the Six Tribes of Europe are now set until until late 2025

The French Elections Provide Clarity

Hello All,

With the dust settling after the French election (though still looking for a breakdown of the number of seats won by the constituent parts of the New Popular Front), something important has happened. Three of Europe’s Four major strategic powers (France, UK and Poland) have had an election recently and the fourth (Germany) doesn’t go to the polls until next September.

Italy, the fifth power also wont have national elections for a while (Meloni doesn’t have to call them until 2027—though it could happen sooner if the Italian parliaments dissolves which looks unlikely).

Also a range of vital smaller and medium powers have held elections—the Finns for instance who elected a very sensible leaders. Others have stability for a while (the Czechs had their last presidential election in 2023—and that means President Pavel is well placed for a few more years).

Why is this important, particularly for Ukraine? Two things—it means that Europe can start planning for the crucial next year and a half from a basis of stability and (close to) unanimity with the states that matter. Second, it means that Europe can start putting in place some rushed attempts to prepare for a Trump presidency.

In fact, with the dust settling for the next year, year and a half, it might make sense to break Europe down into its six “tribes” when it comes to Ukraine—to see just how important the French election is, and why this it is such important news.

First: The Big 3—No more elections and pro-Ukraine.