Turning Crimea From An Asset Into A Russian Liability
It Seems To Be Happening In Front Of Our Eyes
Hi All,
The last few days have given some concrete evidence about both the situation for the Russian occupiers of Crimea and Ukrainian plans for the peninsula. The Ukrainian strategy of isolating the peninsula seems to be both accelerating and having concrete results. If the Russians do not have the ability to counter soon, Crimea could be isolated, with pretty dire strategic results for them.
The best piece of concrete evidence for the isolation of Crimea is that the peninsula is running out of fuel. Yesterday, the Russian governor was forced to take the dramatic step of forbidding fuel sales to civilians. According to a BBC story:
Governor Sergey Aksyonov said individuals and businesses would be turned away from petrol stations, and fuel would only be sold to government agencies ensuring Crimea's “functioning and security”.
It is hard to overstate how serious the fuel situation must be on Crimea for such a draconian restriction to be imposed on civilians. Putin has always maintained the fiction that Crimea is some happy and functioning part of the Russian state. No more.
Back in July 2024, I wrote that Ukraine isolating Crimea would be a three step process, and at that point only the first step has been accomplished (which was the cutting off of Crimea from the sea). The next two steps would be far more difficult, but if they could be accomplished, the whole process might culminate in an attempt to take down the Kerch Bridge.
And here is the conclusion.
I was thinking about this piece a few hours ago, when I saw this Ukrainian boast that they had just disabled the remaining Russian air defense systems protecting the Kerch Bridge.
What the Ukrainians have done is remarkable. It has taken years of planning and effort, a number of extremely difficult steps, and has put the Russians in a terrible strategic bind. I thought both a quick recap of how we got here as well as some speculation on where this might be going might be useful for subscribers.
How The Ukrainians Got Here: First, Gaining Air Superiority
