The Worst Argument Possible

Of course Europe can defend itself, indeed it should.

Hi All,

The strangest chorus possible has emerged from some senior European leaders during the last two weeks. That chorus is that Europe on its own, without the USA, cannot defend itself. The implication of this strange argument is that therefore European states must bend the knee to Donald Trump’s USA, to get whatever scraps from the defense table that Trump is willing to throw their way.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte most famously made this argument two week ago when addressing the European Parliament. He minced so words on Europe’s supposed helplessness without the USA. “If anyone thinks here ... that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming…You can’t.”

In Rutte’s world Europe seems to lack the resources and will to look after itself, and would need to spend historically massive amounts if the USA would not fight for Europe’s security. Here was how one article quoted and summarized his arguments.

“For Europe, if you really want to go it alone … forget that you can ever get there with 5 percent,” Rutte said, referencing a pledge by NATO allies to ramp up their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. “It will be 10 percent,” he argued, and cost “billions and billions of euros” to replace America’s nuclear deterrent.

Even more troubling, in Rutte’s bizarro world, the NATO alliance is going on just like before, with the Trump administration strongly backing NATO and working hard with its European partners to get a good deal for Ukraine. The USA led by Trump (who according to Rutte is “totally committed to NATO”) along with Witkoff, Kushner, etc, are all honest brokers trying to help Ukraine and support Europe. Here was how he mentioned the talks when speaking to the European parliament.

Meanwhile, the US-led peace talks are ongoing. President Trump and his team - Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio – they are working hard to end the bloodshed, and this is done with the support of Europeans.

Poor Rutte, it was only after this talk that the stories came out that the US administration has been starving Ukrainians of Patriot missiles and making it much easier for the Russians to freeze and kill Ukrainian civilians. Watching NATO sources, anonymously of course, trying to wipe the egg off of Rutte’s face is a sight to behold. I will write about that in the coming weekend update.

Now, Rutte is not alone in making such arguments. A week ago the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Kęstutis Budrys, spoke identically.

“Lithuania’s national security rests on two pillars – the US and NATO,” Budrys wrote on Facebook. “Maintaining vital ties with the US is the highest priority. There are no alternatives, and there will be none at least in the medium to long term.”

“Without the US, Europe is undefendable,”

This kind of argument has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. When Edward Stringer and I wrote the piece in Foreign Affairs a year and a half ago arguing that Europe needed to prepare for a defense future without the USA, we were given precisely the same argument by some senior European policy makers. Europe cannot look after itself without the USA, the USA will never abandon Europe, etc, etc.

In other words, its an argument wheeled out to delay much needed change. To be frank, it is also based on a number of terrifying misapprehensions that I will list here,

First, what the Trump administration (and future US administrations) do is not up to Europe. They will not fight for Europe if they are not so inclined, regardless of how pathetic European leaders say Europe is. I would say now that the US would not fight for the Baltics if the Russians attacked and the US under Trump would never use nuclear weapons to defend Europe in any scenario. So saying you are helpless without the USA does make it more likely that the US will defend Europe—if anything it makes it less likely.

Second, these European policy makers are misleading their populations. By pretending that the US under Trump is committed to NATO, trying to help Ukraine, etc, they are willfully operating in a fantasy land. The US is trying to help Putin, is undermining European defense and would be happy to see Ukraine devastated. Trump is no more committed to Europe’s defense than he is to Ukraine’s.

NB. I believe and I will write a piece on this soon, that what we are dealing with here is a generation of European leaders who cannot admit that they have failed. The world they assumed was permanent, was not. However instead of admitting their failure, they desperately pretend that things are not changing beneath their feet. They would rather risk catastrophe for Europe than admit that they were wrong.

Third, Europe actually can defend itself and resorting to scare figures such as Rutte’s 10% of GDP, is nonsense. Russia, the most obvious security threat to European states, has a GDP that is less than 10% of just the EU’s. If you add the UK and Norway to the mix, Russia shrinks in comparison. For Rutte to say that European states would have to spend vastly more than the entire GDP of Russia to defend itself against Russia is puerile scaremongering. Nothing more, nothing less. Moreover, Russia is burning through its military assets in Ukraine.

Fourth, and finally, Europe’s greatest problem might be mental. By saying it cannot defend itself, it is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Europe is a wealthy, educated and in global terms very healthy continent. Infantilizing itself to Donald Trump’s America makes it seem far weaker than it should be.

If Europeans want to have a future not only do they need to understand that they can defend themselves without the USA, but they should. Stop listening to the generation of failure who has left Europe in this sorry state. They have failed their own populations, but it is not too late to fix the problem.