The US should pull out of the Middle East

Written in January 2024

Hi All.

I always get a little amused when people call me an interventionist or a neoconservative. I am actually a strong interventionist skeptic—and believe that the US using its military force directly is far more often the wrong choice over the right. It goes back to my views on war. Why I hated the idea that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be quick and decisive, is that wars are never/hardly ever that. Its a constant myth that people latch on to, to justify their prejudices about power and war.

In January 2022, when the invasion was about to be launched, I thought people had lost their minds in describing the Russian full-scale invasion as something that would be over quickly (in minutes some said). This gives an example of the argument I made at the time.

If we have relearned any lesson over the last two decades is that military operations are expensive, usually counterproductive, and with the constant possibility of going disastrously wrong for the richest and most advanced economies—let alone weak ones.

Btw, its also one of the arguments I develop more in my upcoming book, War and Power.

I am a strong direct intervention skeptic—and believe that the US has gone wrong repeatedly by underestimating the chance for catastrophe when it uses military force. I support aid for Ukraine for precisely this reason. In the case of Ukraine—the Ukrainians are doing the fighting. If I do believe direct US intervention is something of which we should be wary, I also believe that the US needs to cultivate strong allies who are willing to fight for themselves. In fact, US direct interventions often enfeeble allies—as we have seen in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Aiding Ukraine was a way of avoiding a direct US intervention in Europe in the future, by supporting a democracy that was willing to fight and die for its own future. It seemed always the right choice.

With this in mind, I wanted to say something about my discussion of the air war over Iran (and US intervention). One of the reasons I remain skeptical of its value is for everything above (and everything below). I thought therefore I would share a piece with my subscribers (to get their opinion as much as anything else) that I wrote a year and a half ago. It was a piece that argued that the US should start pulling out its military force in the Middle East (or at least drastically reducing it). Here is the screenshot of the piece so you can see I am not making this up.

I did not release it at the time because I wanted to keep the focus on Ukraine and because, as a non-expert, wading into Middle Eastern politics with its intense passions seemed the wrong choice at the time. However, now I would like to release it to subscribers, to get their thoughts.

Pictures from Iran after the US raids. Is it time for the US to draw its military forces out of the region?

Thank you.

The US should pull out of the Middle East

Written January 2024