The US Military Is Failing: Facts Need To Be Faced
Updates On The Two Wars First
Hello all
This piece is the start of some thoughts about the future shape of modern militaries, particularly the US military. However, there were two major stories in the last few hours about both the US-Iran and Russo-Ukraine War, so those must be mentioned first. Needs must and these two stories are ones that you will want to know about and I will keep those free.
Zelensky Calls Out Trump
As I tried to make clear in yesterday’s Weekend Update, the 1000 prisoner exchange that Trump clearly promised Zelensky on Putin’s behalf was the key in getting Ukraine to promise not to attack the Red Square parade. The fact that the Russians immediately started pouring cold water on the exchange right after the parade ended was yet another example of how easily, almost enthusiastically, Putin goes about humiliating Trump whenever he wants. Zelensky, however, is no longer meekly accepting US domination. Yesterday evening, he went public and called out Trump.
The last line about Ukraine expecting “the American side to play an active role in ensuring” the prisoner exchange promise actually happens is Zelensky saying to Trump and the USG, are you real or are you Russian pawns?
If Trump is going to so brazenly serve Putin’s interests and protect Putin as he commits ever more terrible war crimes, the Ukrainians are going to want this on the record. So far, interestingly, Trump has refused comment. He has been on some frantic tweet storm, and talked about Iran, Fox News, about how he is the greatest president in history, about his ballroom, etc, but nothing about the pledge he personally made to see the Ukraine-Russia prisoner exchange happen. The longer he is silent, the more he is admitting that he remains a Russian tool.
Iran Says No, So Are We Back To War?
If this was not enough, last night we also finally got news that the Iranian government had replied to the Trump administration’s peace plan for the conflict. The Iranian plan, which Trump had promised would come in Friday (another interesting sign of how the balance between Iran and the USA is not in Washington’s favor), was a clear rejection of the US position. It was basically an Iranian victory plan. Among its key points were compensation for Iran, Iran retaining sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, with the nuclear questions being kicked down the road. Here is how I would summarize the points.
Immediate and Permanent Ceasefire: Iran demanded an immediate end to the war “on all fronts,” specifically insisting that any deal must include the cessation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Management of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran emphasized its “sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz. The response maintained that all commercial vessels must coordinate with the Iranian Navy.
Lifting of Sanctions and Blockade: The immediate lifting of all U.S. sanctions, the removal of the U.S. naval blockade currently in place, and the termination of the ban on Iranian oil sales.
War Reparations: The proposal included a demand for financial compensation (reparations) from the United States and its allies for damages sustained during the conflict.
Nuclear Counter-Offer:
Moratorium: Iran suggested a significantly shorter moratorium on nuclear enrichment than the 20-year period requested by the U.S.
Uranium Stockpile: Instead of the total transfer of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to the U.S. or a third party, Iran proposed exporting only a portion and diluting the remainder.
Facility Status: Iran flatly refused the U.S. demand to dismantle its nuclear facilities, offering instead to keep them under monitored status.
Guarantee of Non-Aggression: The text underlined the necessity of a formal guarantee that no further military aggression would be taken against Iranian territory.
It was not a response to the US plan, it was in essence a full rejection. Trump lashed out almost immediately and the White House followed up with what looked like a threat to restart hostilities.
So are we back to war? Not necessarily.
In all honesty the Iranian response is nothing new. All the talk about Iran being ready to compromise, to agree to Trump’s terms, etc etc, was only coming from the White House to begin with. There never was any convincing outside evidence that the Iranians were ready to cut a deal that Trump wanted, but the WH wanted that narrative out not only to reassure the oil markets (they are going to have an interesting day) but also to massage US public opinion.
All this is a sign that in essence nothing has changed for more than six weeks. Iran is not crumbling, Trump is stuck, the Strait is closed, and the two sides are locked in a contest to stare down each other. The Iranian government is just being more honest about where things stand than the US Government.
Now, back to what I started writing.
The US Military Is Failing: Facts Need To Be Faced
