The US Does Not Understand War and Power: Which Is Why It Would Probably Lose To China In A War

Hi All,

First off—thanks so much for the many of you who wondered how I was feeling after Sunday’s update. I think it was the Norovirus, which I can say is no fun indeed. At least it did not last too long, though it certainly wiped me out for a bit. I’m feeling much better and people asking after me definitely helped cheer me up. Hopefully that will not happen again anytime soon!

Also, today release date in the USA edition of War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why (Hatchette/Basic Books). As part of the release there is this article which just appeared in The Atlantic, which uses to ideas of the book to discuss a possible war between the USA and China. Here is a gift link to the article—use it in good health! I will also include an early draft of the article below for paying subscribers.

For those who want to buy the book (and who am I not to encourage that) you can get it for a 20% discount at the Basic Books/Hatchette Website if you use the discount code:

WAR&POWER

Note—it is not case sensitive.

Here is the US cover.

You can also buy through all retailers such as Amazon, etc.

Here is some of the advance commentary for the book.

Phillips O’Brien is one of the keenest observers of modern strategy, and his new book takes a deep historical look at the evolution of warfare and its implications for conflicts like the ongoing one in Ukraine. -- Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History and the Last Man

Phillips O’Brien is always fantastic. Heterodox. He’s pretty scathing, even about Biden administration policy . . . A really interesting book ― Paul Krugman, Distinguished Professor of Economics

As wars rage across the world, Phillips O’Brien offers powerful insights into the past, present, and future of war and power. This book is vital reading for anyone grappling with America’s uncertain place in today’s global order. -- Alexander Vindman ― New York Times–bestselling author of The Folly of Realism

Phillips O’Brien is the rare historian who has something trenchant to say to students of contemporary warfare. As he points out in this important book, the character of war evolves, but some of the underlying truths, particularly from the second World War, are still very much with us. -- Eliot Cohen, Professor Emeritus at Johns Hopkins SAIS

And I also released an excerpt from the book through substack a few months ago.

The book is an attempt to provide a new framework for understanding war and power, after what are clear failures over the preceding century and a half; failures that have become even more glaring over time.

The article in the Atlantic takes one of these ideas head on—the notion of what wins wars. If you listen to what the US DOD is now saying about how it wants to construct America’s military and what it values, you will see a focus on battle-winning and war losing. This sadly is indicative of where the US is in relation to a war with China. If that terrible event occurred, the US might win the opening battles with its more experienced, probably more technically advanced military. However the US would probably lose any longer war, because it would struggle mightily to make up its losses and generate new equipment in comparison to the Chinese. At the same time, the US has started distancing itself from many of its allies around the world—which leaves it in a considerably less secure position.

There will also be much more on the book in the coming weeks. Another excerpt should be running in Foreign Policy in a day or so, and I am going to appear on a number of excellent book podcasts. If people want, I can also do another Q&A session on Substack Live. I thought I might wait a little, to give some people a chance to read the book—so was thinking the second week of November.

Anyway—the book is now out and available in the USA. I hope you enjoy it.

And here is an early draft of the Atlantic piece.

Atlantic—US-China War

In his recent address to the combined audience of generals and admirals of the US military, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stressed the military virtues of lethality, bravery and even hand to hand combat, equating them with key ingredients in any future US victory in war. He even went on to paint a vivid picture of his vision of how wars are won.