Hello All,
Sorry for sending this piece out as I know it has been only 12 hours since I sent out my Weekend Update. However a few people have asked me to discuss what exactly President Trump’s announcement of a blockade against shipping from Iranian ports means, why he might have done it, etc, etc, and so I thought it might be useful if I put together this primer for subscribers. It will cover a few areas including what is not important, and what is important (in 4 main points) as well as something we must watch.
My guess is that, similar to the initial bombing, Trump has not fully thought out the implications of his actions and this can work out very differently than intended. Also, he might see the real-world economic impact of this blockade sooner than expected (markets are already showing real worry) and thus he could end it sooner than you think. Also, please pay attention to China and Russia.
So here goes.
What Does Not Matter
A few people have pointed out that a blockade is an act of war and this might change things in Congress. It is undoubtedly true that a blockade is an act of war and in a normal Congress this could make a difference. However, bombing a country’s leadership, military facilities, power plants and university departments are also acts of war, and so far that has made no difference whatsoever.
I asked a very knowledgeable Republican source if the electoral devastation just visited on Viktor Orban (yippee!!) might embolden Trump-skeptical Republicans to stand up to the President on issues such as Ukraine or Iran. I received a one word response—NO. This is still Trump’s party and Trump’s war, and Republicans in Congress will protect him as he wages it.
So, do not think legalisms will make a difference.
What Really Matters (1)
The most important thing to understand about this Blockade is that it shows how desperate Trump is to avoid the use of US ground troops in the war. As I tried to point out in my primer on possible uses of US ground troops, none of the options were good and all carried great risks.
