The Ukrainian Counteroffensive Update--this will not be Desert Storm

Ukraine is attempting something difficult, it will take time

Hello all, This is my second update on the Ukrainian counteroffensive—these will continue to be more regular but shorter than other things I’ve written in the past.

It has been interesting to see some of the instant reaction to the launching of the more serious phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive (a phase which seemed to start on Wednesday). Ukrainian forces started their assaults on a range of positions in the Zaporizhzia Oblast, which is in many ways the heart of the Russian defensive line. Naturally, these assaults did not yield immediate, dramatic results, and some were surprised at that. However, this part of the assault was in the heart of the Russian line, as was never going to immediately result in a breakthrough/exploitation in a few hours (of the type the US was able to do between 1991-2003).

US Armor in action in Persian Gulf War, 1991