The Two Futures

Why a Ukrainian Victory Matters--to All of Us

Hello Everyone,

My original plan was to return to my series on Crafting a Better US Foreign Policy this week.

However, it was slightly pre-empted by the fact that having developed the ideas of what has been problematic in US foreign policy, it seems the Atlantic wants to publish a piece on how US foreign policy can be improved. It should come out relatively soon—and when it does I thought I would do a special piece on the subject for subscribers. So as to not pre-empt that, instead I thought I would share a piece I’m writing on why I believe its so important that Ukraine wins the war. It came out of another development this week.

Easily, the best thing about this week was that Mykola Bielieskov and I were able to relaunch our podcast, Ukraine-Russia War Talk.

Its been a longer gap than we would have liked, but we needed to “get our ducks in a row” technically, so to speak. We needed the right equipment, right technical support, right editing, etc, to try and produce a more high quality product. I think we wanted to make sure that the relaunched podcast was something that would do justice to our hope that people will support Come Back Alive.¹ Indeed we would like to do an upcoming episode in which we discuss Come Back Alive in detail and how they help Ukrainian soldiers in the field.

One of the great pleasures of the podcast this time was that Mykola was actually in the United Kingdom when we recorded. In fact we were able to bring him to the University of St Andrews to speak to packed house on the state of the war. One of the most exhilarating things of the talk was that the Ukrainian students group at the university turned out in force. Afterwards they had a Ukrainian group discussion, which one student later described to me as “empowering”. I found it moving.

Anyway, after the event I was asked if at some point in the future I would not mind saying some words to the Ukrainian student group about anything that I wanted. It was a clarifying moment, as I instantly felt I wanted to talk not just about the war, but why I think its so important (not just for Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole and yes that includes the USA) that Ukraine not just survive the war, but win it. And so I go to work organizing my thoughts on the question, and you are going to be the first to read them. In some ways it was quite cathartic, as it allowed me to put down on paper in detail why a Ukrainian victory has become something I believe will make the world a much better place.

The Two Futures Part 1: NATO Membership for Ukraine has to be part for Ukraine to Win

Ukraine is not going to lose this war. By that I mean that whatever happens, Ukraine is going to survive as a state, in control of most of its territory. However, that disguises a great deal—between a Ukraine that has not lost and a Ukraine that has actually “won”. What is the difference? Well a Ukraine that wins this war is first and foremost a Ukraine that can establish the international relationships that its people desire for their own freedom, security and prosperity. The two that are obvious are that for Ukraine to win it must be either immediately accepted into, or have a clear and time sensitive roadmap to gain entry into NATO and the European Union. There is no substitute for such full membership and of the two, it is Ukrainian membership of NATO that is most important in the first instance