The Prigozhin Coup seems pretty damn well organized

OK we are about 12 hours into what is clearly an attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin to topple the leadership of the Russian military (and very possibly the Russian government). This all started with an announcement by Prigozhin yesterday that the Russian army had launched a missile attack on a Wagner base—and it has snowballed exponentially since then. You can actually hear some of Prigozhin’s announcement here.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672325114518446081?s=20

At first this attempt by Prigozhin seemed almost impulsive and bound to fail (and it still might—and probably should if the Russian army stays loyal to Putin). However, what does seem to be the case now is that this is a well-planned operation that has been a while in the making and has a greater chance of success that certainly I would have thought yesterday. If you look at the timing, the placement of Russian forces, the areas that Prigozhin has seized, and the fact that Putin was clearly caught of guard, you can see this. If you dont mind, I thought I would talk a little bit about why I think it is well organized and could succeed.

Timing: This is a perfect time for Prigozhin to take this risk. Almost all of Wagner has pulled out of Ukraine over the last month and was back in Russia itself (or overseas). This means that he has a ready supply of rested forces (some with real combat experience). Ive seen regular estimates of 20k to 30k Wagner personnel who are now under his authority, and they seem (despite all of his constant complaints) to be pretty well equipped. I mean, they have already shot down at least one Russian army helicopter and one aircraft. This does not happen by accident.