The NATO Communique and Ukraine: Too Clever by Half

A Word-Salad was Created when Simplicity was Called for.

I had hopes this morning that President Biden and other major leaders at the Vilnius NATO summit might grasp the opportunity that they have been given by assuring the Ukrainian government that they would be admitted into NATO not long after the cessation of hostilities with Russia. This would not mean instant accession, as some people seemed to think, or anything that would lead to NATO invoking article 5 to enter the war. It would be a clear and straightforward statement that Ukraine would be welcomed into the alliance as soon as possible after the war had been concluded. After all, the Ukrainians themselves have understood that this was the reality. Ukraine is not going to be in NATO while this war is raging.

Pres Zelensky making a public address in Vilnius: https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-in-vilnius-nato-will-give-ukraine-security-ukraine-will-make-the-alliance-stronger/

Even during the height of the winter bombardment this winter, when Ukrainian cities were being attacked constantly by missiles and drones, President Zelensky admitted this. “It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO; we understand this,” the Ukrainian president said. “For years we heard about the apparently open door (to NATO), but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/15/kyiv-facing-dangerous-moment-amid-signs-of-russias-tightening-grip

However if there was a pretty clear understanding that NATO membership was off the table until after the war, there was a growing hope that a clear and accelerated pathway to NATO membership would be on the cards. The reason Ukraine needs NATO membership are staring us all in the face, and its not just military security.

First, its a sign of future confidence. After this war (even during it) Ukraine will need to convince foreign investors and supporters to take part in its reconstruction. This is vital for so many reasons, not least to help tempt back the millions of Ukrainians who have been forced to leave this country by this terrible war. NATO membership would be the most powerful way to assure these investors. Its no mistake, btw, that the some of the fastest growing parts of Europe are those like Poland or the Baltics, that were dominated by Russia as either part of the USSR or Warsaw Pact, but now have their security guaranteed by NATO. Futhermore, with the accession of Finland and soon Sweden, Ukraine would be the only country bordering Russia to the west which is not in NATO (not including Belarus, which under Lukashenko is a vassal state of Moscow).

Second, its a sign to the Ukrainian people that their sacrifices will result in a future stability. What the Ukrainians are going through now is impossible to understand if you are not there. It is constant, heightened anxiety, coupled with exhaustion and punctuated by grief. They want, indeed crave, some confidence in their future free of Russia. NATO membership might be the only way to give them that confidence, and it would have been a powerful signal to them as a protected part of the European order. It was telling that Zelensky referenced this need for Ukrainians to feel supported in one of his public speeches yesterday about the need for NATO to support Ukraine.

"And I would like this faith to become confidence - confidence in the decisions that we deserve and that every (Ukrainian) soldier, citizen, mother, and child expects. Is this really a big wish?"

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-in-vilnius-nato-will-give-ukraine-security-ukraine-will-make-the-alliance-stronger/