Taiwan is "Strategic" and its Fate will Determine the Future of the Asia-Pacific Region

Hi All,

I’m returning today to a subject that I talked about in the past—the use (or more appropriately misuse) of the word “strategic”. Its been thrown around like cheap candy in the Russo-Ukraine War, particularly during the last year. Almost every village in the Donbas that Russia has seized has been labelled as “strategic” by the press—only for it almost immediately to be revealed that these empty, wrecked hamlets are of no strategic value. To try and demonstrate just how much ignorance there was on the subject, it was the main subject of one of my weekend updates in September.

Weekend Update #96: The Abuse of the Word “Strategic”

However if its hopefully clear by now that small towns like Toretsk or Chasiv Yar are not strategic, do you want to know what really is? Its easy and its something that is rarely called strategic—and that is the island of Taiwan.

In the discussion over Taiwan in the US press you will rarely see the the island labelled as strategic. And yet, because of its location, population, and capabilities, Taiwan might be the single most strategic place in the region—the fate of which will determine the future of the US’s whole presence in the area and whether China’s neighbors (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and beyond) have any chance of protecting their independence (maritime of otherwise) in the future. This is why its so notable that Donald Trump has moved quickly and clearly to threaten Taiwan and move closer to China since he was elected—it is putting the strategic fate of Taiwan very much in play.

I will be writing more about this Trump pivot later—but its arguably the most telling move he has made since his election. If he abandons Taiwan it will be a strategic catastrophe for the USA—but then again, that might be the point.

For an outline of just why Taiwan is so strategically important, I have put together this primer.

Location and Military Projection

The fate of Taiwan will basically determine the future of Chinese naval power. There is no island so well placed either to protect the vast majority of Chinese naval and air bases (to say nothing of naval production facilities), or correspondingly to represent a constant challenge to the Chinese Navy’s ability to deploy force in this vital area.