Some actual evidence on the state of the war

UK CDS Admiral Radakin briefs Parliament

As you probably know by now, I’m relatively skeptical of the way the war is reported on in western media. Too often the reports are based on the anecdotal to make a general point. One officer or even small group of soldiers can be interviewed and give a snapshot of an engagement, and from that quite broad summaries are often given of the state of the war. This was, I would argue, one of the reasons that Battle of Bakhmut was so poorly understood this February/March. Yes, there were reports from some clearly exhausted and worn out Ukrainian troops who were fighting around Bakhmut, but that did not mean, as a number of people started arguing, that the Ukrainians should simply abandon the city to the Russians. Indeed, in some ways the soldiers’ exhaustion was an example of why the Ukrainians were right to fight for Bakhmut—because it showed just how desperate the Russians were to take the city and how many resources the Russians were willing to throw into the mix.

As an example of how the reporting misunderstood the reality, I wrote this defense of the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut back in March.

Just a few hours ago, however, we had some real analysis come out about the war, which would (one assumes) be based on actual high-quality intelligence. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff, the senior professional officer in the UK military, gave testimony to the UK Parliament’s Defence Committee.

https://www.gov.uk/government/people/tony-radakin

In this testimony, Radakin would have to be very careful to tell the truth, as misleading Parliament (if youre not Boris Johnson) is actually a big deal. Anyway, you can watch the whole testimony here.

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/3d57d033-f8c0-49c8-a4f9-05bb4b05b714n

What he said about the war in Ukraine struck me as so important, that I thought his statement deserved their own substack.

At just after 15:41 on the clock, Admiral Radakin gets onto the state of the Russo-Ukraine war, and its fascinating.

1. Radakin says he is regularly in touch with Zaluzhny and Milley and other senior officers—in other words, he’s plugged in.

2. When it comes to the counteroffensive. “the full counteroffensive has not started”

Then he tries to describe what the Ukrainians are doing—and he calls their tactics: “starve, stretch and strike”