Scenarios For Ending The Russo-Ukraine War
How Wars End Is A Different Process Than You Think
Hello All,
It is now time to write the piece on how the Russo-Ukraine War may end. People wanted speculation on that question, and here you will get it. However, before I get to speculation, there will be a section on the process by which wars end historically, which will highlight considerations informing the different scenarios. This will hopefully provide a comprehensive framework which will inform the speculation.
To start, wars do not end because of the results of “battles” in the way that the analytical community often assumes and portrays it to the public. One of the reasons so much strategic analysis is flawed is because it draws straight lines from military operations to the results of wars. Thus we have had an analytical community writing off Ukraine in 2021-2022 because it was assumed that Ukraine could not operationally resist the Russian military and would lose the opening battles of any full-scale war. Or we had something similar just a few months ago when it was said that overwhelming US force would devastate Iran and lead to a war-ending settlement along American lines.
Actually, the relationship between military operations (battles) and the ends of wars is extremely unstable, with military matters often mattering far less and operating more indirectly than people believe. In fact, instead of starting with the military operations and moving to the end of wars, it is better to start with the actual end of wars and then move backwards to how that phenomenon occurred. In doing so, you will see military operations are just one consideration in the process, and often a secondary one. Here is a framework to help you understand what really happens when a war ends.
Leadership Will Decide
I will start by making a point I have made a few times before—because for this issue it is doubly important. International Relations theories have had only limited value over the last decades because they often downplay the material differences of different leaderships (let alone political systems).
