Hi All,
The USA in many ways has not been a serious country during this entire Iran War. It started it without a strategy, with no match between ways, ends and means, and it has been going downhill since then. It is now fighting this war simply because it has no idea what else to do, and does not have the courage to admit that it has failed.
And this week stories came out that indicated that things are heading in the wrong direction. The President is shaping the military in his own image, which means corrupt, gaudy and heading towards bankruptcy. What we are seeing is not just weakening the USA now, it will weaken the USA for years, maybe decades going forward. The only way to keep it from spiraling out of control is for drastic action now, which is to put much of the military in cold storage until a new administration takes power. More on that below.
Also, a quick note. I often say the “USA” instead of the “Trump Administration”, and that can make some people upset. They say, and I understand the emotion behind this, that what we are seeing is Trump in action, not the USA. However, as I think I have said before, blaming Trump and absolving the country seems to me at least to be dangerous and wrong. The American people chose Trump as their leader by solid majorities in the electoral college and a clear plurality in the popular vote. And they did this almost four years after he tried to block a free and fair election from being finalized on January 6, 2021. The American people have also voted for the Congress that approved his Cabinet members and is allowing him to do what he is doing.
This is the US government, chosen willingly by the American people, in action. Not acknowledging that is dodging the reality that the American people are ultimately responsible for this. So, I will keep referring to the action of the administration as that of the USA—because it is the truth and it is important to ultimately remember why this came about. America chose to do this to itself.
And that means the American people ultimately chose to make the USA not a serious country. Understanding that is maybe the key step to changing the situation.
The USA Is Engaged In A War With No Purpose
The USA is still engaged in a war (a blockade is an act of war) which has not the slightest purpose beyond the ego of the commander in chief. The war has already weakened the country and the longer it goes on, the weaker the country will become.
Over the last week, the pointlessness and lack of direction of the war was once again made brutally clear. First it was said that in Trump’s desire to get out of the war with something, he was willing to give up any nuclear demands and focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Here was what the White House was leaking on the question to the Wall Street Journal just over a week ago.
Then two days ago he came out with this.
Of course, Trump cannot even get the Strait open (in other words a return to the situation on February 27, 2026, before he started his war of choice), so he is just blustering about seizing the Strait for the USA.
The USA, btw, would be too weak to hold the Strait in a war for very long. It would have to mobilize many more forces, would run out of some advanced munitions, and in the end would be forced out—if it actually tried to do this (which it will not).
Actually, Trump is frozen. He has his blockade, which will take months and months to have effect and which Iran has already started finding ways around. Moreover, the Iranians are rebuilding their military far faster than the USA thought possible. And the Russians are sending in military supplies to the Iranians, and we can assume the Chinese are as well.
Every day this goes on, it is Iran that has greater strategic choices and it is Iran, not the USA, which is actually contemplating escalation. Indeed, there are multiple reports of this Iranian planning, including escalation into Europe.
So, while Trump has already exhausted the US military (more on that below) and has to abandon the vital western Pacific because he has bungled things so badly, Iran is rebuilding and planning on expanding the war. And, once again, former US partners in the region can see how weak the USA has become and are planning on a very different future. Oman, which has provided the US Navy with very useful support in the past, is clearly exploring cooperating with Iran in the Strait. Trump’s response to this, a situation he caused, was to threaten to bomb Oman! Indeed, the threat that he made towards this one time US friend was to “bomb the shit out of them.”
If the USA were a serious country, it would realize it has lost this war (actually it would not have started it). And having lost, it is best to get out of it ASAP, as each day it lasts, as I’ve been trying to get across for months now, weakens the USA and strengthens Iran.
The US was strongest on February 27, 2026 and has put itself in a weaker position every day since. In other words, the USA is not a serious country strategically.
Note: I am not holding back in the last two sections, so will reserve these for paying subscribers. The rot in the US military, which we saw reach a new high point this week, means only drastic steps can stop the decline. So there are two more sections, one on what is happening in the military and then a proposal to try and stop the bleeding.
The US Military Is Fast Becoming An Unserious Organization
This week highlighted how the US military is fast becoming a farcical organization, as it contorts itself, with little opposition or even resignation out of principle, to the destructive impulses of the President.
