Hi All,
This update will have two parts, one a news analysis that I will keep open for all, but then a more speculative, analytical piece on how the US-Iran War might end that will be for paying subscribers. I’ve been thinking a great deal about how wars end since I started writing this piece last week. The framework that it lays out has, I believe, some interesting things to say about how the two leaderships might agree on an eventual end to this war. As part of this, there will be an even more speculative section on Iranian strategy: speculative in that I have no real idea of what their strategy is, and will describe what it might be simply from observing what is happening.
In the end, it is not a pretty picture for the USA and a depressingly adept one from Iran.
Iran Is Toying With The USA
On July 23rd, the USA launched its last day of direct attacks on Iran during its latest phase of kinetic attacks in Trump’s War. This phase lasted for 13 days, as the USA continued to throw away valuable weapons systems, further depleting its stocks, for no strategic gain.
How do we know this? Well, the White House was briefing it to the press. In their desperation to provide arguments about why they needed to stop the bombing (which they never should have started) White House sources provided confirmation for the worst kept secret of the war. The US had not prepared and soon would struggle to protect its own troops, to say nothing of its allies (more on that below).
Things reached a tragi-comic level when America’s UN Ambassador, Mike Waltz, went on Meet The Press. In a series of wonderfully contradictory statements, he first said that the shortfall in US munitions existed because of the Biden administration, then he said it was not true and the US military had “everything that it needs”. Then he pivoted again and admitted that the shortfall exists by saying those leaking the information should go to jail. That of course was a great dodge, as it means many people in the White House, including Trump, should probably be jailed.
If you want to watch the whole Waltz interview, here it is:
The shortfall is very real, btw. US stocks are not a mystery as there are annual appropriations that can be accessed and provide a pretty good idea of the numbers.
As I tried to say last week, re-upping this bombing campaign for 13 days only left the USA weaker every day. There is also stockpile info in this piece if you want to read it:
The US administration, not quite grasping how weak it has made itself, even did its usual trick of threatening to escalate wildly against Iran, and stories started circulating of a large number of reinforcements being flown from the USA into the theater in preparation for a ground assault.
However, this was always bluff. The US has weakened itself so dramatically that it has taken a very unpalatable proposition from March and turned it into a political impossibility. If it inserted US ground forces into Iran, say in the Strait area or around Kharg, it would blow through what remains of its stockpiles of advanced air defense weapons in a very short time. Then it would have to either withdraw or suffer increasing casualties.
Adam Kinzinger made a very good point about how Trump’s casualty fear has neutered his escalation threats. He has used up massive numbers of the most advanced systems because they can be fired from a distance, and thus put US soldiers in a safer position. Of course, this means that they are being used at an unsustainable rate, which means if he did escalate, US casualties would be much higher.
All of this came together on July 23 when, after the last of the 13 days of strikes, Trump lied about Iran saying it had been so badly mauled that it had begged for more negotiations.
The actuality was that he was, once again, throwing in the towel as Iran was making a mockery of his operations.
How do we know this was the case? It is pretty straightforward, actually. Once Trump stopped military operations, Iran continued to attack either directly or through its proxies. Here is what has happened since Trump’s latest humiliation.
1. Iranian attacks on US bases — Friday 24 July
Iran’s army said it used Arash one-way attack drones against fuel tanks, equipment warehouses and barracks at Isa (Sheikh Isa) Air Base in Bahrain, and against aircraft hangars, maintenance hangars and barracks at Al-Azraq / Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan. Jordan’s military said it intercepted seven missiles and six drones, so we can say this attack definitely happened.
2. Houthi strikes on Aramco at Jizan and Yanbu — Saturday 25 July
Iran’s allies, the Houthis, claimed dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones were fired against Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia issued alerts in both cities. AFP-verified footage and NASA FIRMS thermal data showed fire at the Jizan refinery. Aramco shut the refinery, at least temporarily, on 27 July.
3. Attack on crude transit infrastructure / Abqaiq — Monday 27 July (attribution disputed)
Iran-backed groups in Iraq attacked “targets and sensitive points” for moving crude from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu, in response to alleged Saudi drone incursions into Yemeni airspace. Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said it intercepted drones aimed at Eastern Province petroleum facilities and at Riyadh, and said they were launched from Iraqi airspace by Iran-backed groups.
4. The US and Saudi Arabia Attack Iraq (not Iran) and Iran Attacks Jordan — 28-29 July
Last night the US responded to Iranian actions, but only by attacking targets in Iraq (Iran’s proxies) to try and keep the fiction going that there was a ceasefire. Iran attacked targets in Jordan, to show that it was not. Details are starting to emerge.
In other words, the US tried to get out of the war (again) this week, and Iran told the US to stuff it. Pointedly, Iran continued to attack US allies throughout the region, which puts the Trump administration in a terrible dilemma.
This is what I mean by Iran “toying” with the USA. Trump wants out, desperately, and Iran will not let him. They seem to understand that they have a significant strategic advantage by keeping the fight going. I hate to admit it, but from a strategic point of view they seem to grasp the true weakness of the US position, and are heading now for as complete a victory as possible. To understand that, the next section will be a description of what Iranian strategy might be.
Iranian Strategy: Squeezing Trump Until He Cracks
This section will be divided into two parts: what we know about Iran is doing and, second, what these actions indicate about Iranian strategy.
What Is Iran Doing?
