Midweek Update #19: What Do We Know?
Also, Living In A Consequence-Free World Has Consequences, The US Is Finding That Out.
I sent this out and then all the images seem to have failed to load. I have no idea what happened—it is a substack issue as Paul Krugman seems to be having the same problem. Will correct it when I can—apologies!
Hi All,
The US-Iran War is a war of superlatives, because it is so absurd. It has already been the most “corrupt” war in US history (easily), the most “strategy-free” war in US history, and the most pointless war in US history. It might also be the stupidest. Another thing it is, without a doubt, is Donald Trump’s War (indeed that might be its name in history). This makes it a war with the stability of Donald Trump’s personality (i.e., very little). This week, for instance, the ceasefire between Iran and the USA completely broke down (yes, four days of constant bombardment means it has broken down) but if it instantly reasserted itself today, no one could be surprised because that is how Trump operates.
With that in mind, and operating in a world of constant instability, I thought it might be worthwhile constructing a list of what we might “know” from the evidence at hand. In this case knowledge will be expressed in a percentage of likelihood, from highest percentage chance to the lowest. And this list will be constructed with the proviso that as this is Donald Trump’s War, no one really knows anything. I will put that at the end and leave it for paying subscribers, as it will be intrinsically speculative. However, before that, we need to see just how the ceasefire broke down and what it might mean.
Donald Trump’s War Reignites
Donald Trump’s War reignited over the last week because Donald Trump’s fantasy MOU/ceasefire was revealed to be a sham. The MOU that he constructed with Iran was never a basis for an agreement, because Iran gave up nothing in it and thus Trump lacked any foundation from which to declare some kind of victory (which is the one thing he must have). As the truth inevitably dawned on him that Iran had no intention of making any concessions on its nuclear program and on its control of the Strait of Hormuz, he was faced with either admitting he had suffered the greatest strategic defeat in US history, or reigniting military operations in a desperate attempt to see if something, anything might happen to make Iran more malleable.
And anything was better in his mind than admitting defeat, so it was back to war we go.
Now, Trump declared the ceasefire formally over on July 8 at the Ankara Summit (see last week’s midweek update) but at that point it was not clear what that meant. Now we can say it was the precursor for a great deal of military action, primarily from the USA, and primarily with airstrikes. Here is a list I have compiled of military operations launched by both sides in only the past 5 days, so you can see just how regular military action has been, particularly from the US side.
July 11
USA: CENTCOM claimed to have hit approximately 140 targets; and sets terms to end hostilities (open the strait, halt shipping attacks, surrender enriched uranium).
Iran: IRGC struck the container ship GFS Galaxy in Hormuz and declared the strait closed; also claimed (disputed by Jordan, partially corroborated by satellite imagery) a missile strike on Jordan’s Prince Hassan Air Base.
Sources: CNN, CENTCOM, Middle East Eye
July 12
USA: detailed strikes on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Hajiabad (1 killed, 4 injured per Iranian state media); first use of one-way attack drones this campaign.
Iran: widest missile/drone volley yet, fired at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan; also claimed (unconfirmed by Pentagon) a strike on Sheikh Isa Air Base, Bahrain.
Sources: CNN, CENTCOM, Al Jazeera
July 13
USA: five-hour strike wave on Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, Bandar Abbas.
Iran: IRGC missiles struck two UAE-flagged tankers (al-Bahiya, Mombasa) in Omani waters — 1 Indian crew killed, several injured (this is independently confirmed, not just an Iranian claim); oil price spiked almost 10%.
Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera, CNBC
July 14
USA: third consecutive night hitting coastal sites; Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports and threatened to hit infrastructure (bridges, power plants) next. More on the threats below.
Iran: continued fallout/casualty reporting from the July 13 tanker strikes (total 1 killed, 8 injured); no distinct new attack confirmed.
Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera
July 15
USA: seven-hour, fourth-night strike wave (command centers, air defense, Bandar Abbas) plus a separate round on Greater Tunb Island; disabled an empty tanker with Hellfire missiles for ignoring the blockade.
Iran: Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missiles/drones.
Sources: CNN, NPR, Jerusalem Post
July 16 (today)
USA: fifth consecutive day of strikes (explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Ahvaz, Chabahar); Trump reportedly weighing (not yet ordered) ground operations (more on that below), and bombing an underground site linked to Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran: air-raid sirens reported in Bahrain/Kuwait but no itemized detail found.
Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera
That is a pretty extensive list of the US at war, and reveals a good deal about what Trump feels he needs and has not achieved. He really seems to think that constant bombardment will lead the Iranian regime to give him something that they have not yet offered. Its an extraordinary gamble, as he is restarting the bombing in a weaker strategic position than he was when he ended military operations in April. It is now getting perilously close to the US midterm elections and this war remains unpopular. The most recent polls are pretty consistent—somewhere between 60-66% of Americans believe do not support the war and consider it a failure. Only the GOP/MAGA base still supports this unending war (ironically enough). Also, the Iranian regime has consolidated its hold on power and seems to have rebuilt some of its military assets. However that is an irrelevance in Donald Trump’s War. He will do anything not to accept defeat for now.
Living In A Consequence-Free World Has Consequences, The US Is Finding That Out
There were two extraordinary outbursts from the US administration this week, one related to Trump’s War and the other directed at Europeans. However both were primal screams at the strategic weakness that the US has deliberately and by choice brought on itself, and both are worth reflecting upon. First, Donald Trump, having tried to control his outbursts over the previous few weeks, had another OTT venting session, threatening Iran with annihilation for doing exactly what he had ordered at the start of this war. On July 11 he tweeted:
"1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME! Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran - PRAISE BE TO ALLAH!"
At almost the same time Trump was making this latest threat, Undersecretary of State Elbridge Colby, who for years has been lambasting Europeans for not doing more to defend themselves and who has been leading the call for a withdrawal of forces from Europe, started panicking when he was faced with the reality of what this meant. He then put together one of the least self-aware tweet threads in the history of twitter (which is a remarkable achievement). Here is the text:
“There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective “middle powers”strategy these days. At DoW, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allies and partners will *think it is* and waste valuable time, money, and political capital on a distraction. 1/
From our point of view, a collective middle powers strategy is based on a faulty understanding of international relations. We are flexible realists. So, we view the international scene through the prism of interest, geography, economics, military power, etc. “Middle powers” don’t have a coherent basis for alignment. 2/
It also isn’t borne out by reality, in our experience. We see an *upsurge* in desire for engagement with the United States, not a reduction. Under President Trump’s leadership, countries not only see the value of American engagement, they can no longer take it for granted. We unquestionably see an incredibly strong and continuing demand signal for U.S. military presence and engagement around the world. 3/
Take our defense industry and arms sales. There is a lot of commentary that, due to alleged frustrations with the United States, the American defense industrial base will lose out on the market for weaponry. But this is neither feasible nor accurate. 4/
The simple fact of the matter is that no alternative country or countries can compete with the U.S. defense industrial base, either in quantity or quality. The United States, as the President says, makes the best equipment, and we make it at a scale that no plausible competitor can match. If anything, access to the American DIB is a privilege, not a right. 5/
At the same time, American companies are at the forefront of advanced technology. There is no credible free world alternative to American tech and its implications for defense. 6/
This is not to say allies and partners should give up spending more or investing in their own DIB. *To the contrary.* More spending will help us all, and especially our allies’ own security. And we welcome allies’ investment in their own DIBs, but in ways that are collaborative with America’s rather than trying in vain to replicate or supplant it. 7/7
It is hard not to laugh at this last thread. Europe never wanted to start moving towards strategic autonomy. It tried desperately to pretend that the US was still its friend, was still reliable and would still fight for it. However the administration, with Colby as a leading voice, has spent the last year and a half crapping on Europe from a great height. The result is that some European states are acting logically and beginning to plan for a strategic future that does not rely on America.
And now Colby panics and both insults Europeans and pleads with them because they are taking actions as a direct result of policies he support. He insults them in saying that they are too weak to do this, but then destroys his own case by threatening/pleading with them not to do it at the same time.
It obviously is finally dawning on him, as it did with Trump last week, that actions have consequences. Trump’s tweet about Iran assassinating him was perhaps his great moment for this. Trump, to start the war, ordered the military operation that actually assassinated Iran’s supreme leader (and many other senior Iranian officials). Heck, he had then gone on to celebrate that assassination publicly. Just to refresh your memory, this was what Trump tweeted when the assassination of Khamenei was announced.
“Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS... This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country... not only the death of Khamenei but the Country has been, in only one day, very much destroyed and, even, obliterated.”
Look, Khamenei was a terrible guy, but the USA had pursued and legitimized a policy of leader assassination. Now it complains about this policy that has made Trump himself a legitimate target for Iran. What did he think? Did Trump believe he could assassinate whomever he wanted in Iran and Iran would not contemplate retaliating in kind?
The US believed for too long that it was living in a consequence free world, where it could do what it wanted and was so powerful that other states would simply bow to its magnificence, accept all insults, and grovel for its friendship. Well guess what? Actions have consequences, and the US has deliberately chosen policies with pretty terrible ones.
Wake up and smell the roses America. You planted these ones.
What Do We Know?
Ok, here is the highly speculative section with things we might “know”, with analysis, and a completely arbitrary percentage I have assigned for the chance each statement being the truth. As it is speculation, I will reserve this for paying subscribers:
99%: Iran has not made any meaningful concession whatsoever to Trump.
