Midweek Update #17: The Most Dangerous Intelligence Move Ever Contemplated

Another Week Of Weakness--Might It Make Things Better?; Beware Claims That War Is Easy

Hi All,

It is a crazy week and it is only Wednesday. I almost wrote a separate piece on what might be the single most destructive step I have ever heard being contemplated by a US administration. Instead of flooding your inboxes, however, I thought I would lead with it in this Midweek Update, before focusing on the US-Iran War as per normal.

It seems the Trump administration actually wants a master list accumulated by US intelligence agencies of all foreign sources supplying information to help the US government. Many of these sources have risked their lives, and their families’ lives, to help America, and their identities need to be protected. There is a reason that such a list has never been collected before; it would be something that could set a nuclear bomb off under US security—let alone its intelligence services. So far, some elements in the intelligence agencies are resisting, but this is very much in the balance. With Presidential power being so exaggerated these days, and the supine nature of Trump’s cabinet secretaries (and the GOP in general)—this might very well happen.

Here was how the New York Times story on the subject started.

There is no reason for Trump to want such a master list accumulated for national security reasons. Such a list would be only a potential national security liability. It would be the Holy Grail of intelligence information for other states to get on the USA.

Indeed, I can only think of two reasons such a list would ever be contemplated.

• The first is that it would be so valuable, that members of the administration could sell it for many, many billions of dollars to foreign states. Imagine how much money the Chinese would pay to know all US intelligence assets in China? Tens of billions, hundreds of billions?

• The second is that the US Government is now being heavily influenced by agents of a foreign state that is desperately fighting a war that it is now losing, and is looking for anything it can get to help itself.

In other words, the only reason to get this list is to hurt the USA. And that very much seems to be the point. If this master list is actually assembled, it will be not only the story of the midweek, it could be the intelligence story of the year/decade/21st Century. Watch it very closely. The Administration is on the cusp of blowing up US intelligence collection for a generation.

This story is so important that I wanted to highlight it here, but for now back to normal service.

Another Week Of Weakness

Well, the extraordinary weakness of the USA in the Gulf was confirmed this week. The Iranians seem to be deliberately stringing the administration along knowing that Trump has little leverage at the present time. The Iranians are openly doing things that Trump said they would never do. This includes such things as planning for tolls in the Strait (maybe with Oman or maybe unilaterally), openly musing about procuring an Iranian nuclear weapon, and rebuilding its military strength in such crucial areas as ballistic missiles and air defense.

The Iranians even flexed their muscles by deliberately attacking an oil tanker that tried to transit the Strait outside of their control. Trump’s response was weakness in a bottle. He made the worst genocidal threat in history and then tossed a few bombs. The threat was as follows:

“there may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable... If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”

Then, a day and a half of pointless airstrikes followed (interestingly aimed at targets the administration had already assured us had been thoroughly destroyed). Then the USA made a desperate pivot on Sunday night and said the strikes were over, hoping to assure the oil markets that this was no big deal and please please please do not drive up the price of gasoline to the American consumer.

And the Iranians went right back to claiming control over the Strait and rebuilding their military.

It is probably the most bizarre use of military force in US history. What we are seeing is strategically useless, wastes ammunition of which the US is already running short, and reinforces the idea that the USA is weakening and aimless. This is the message US partners are taking not only in the region but around the world. In other words, it is the use of American military power to make things worse for the USA.

US partners in the region are indeed getting this message loud and clear, and are already trying to carve out a better relationship with Iran—knowing that the US is in no shape to protect them. In many ways the region is already preparing for a post-American future.

American weakness has one lesson (that really should not have to be learned over and over, but sadly does) and one hopeful sign. The lesson is about the extraordinary difficulty in achieving strategic aims through the use of military force. Time and time again, major powers, such as the USA, and middling powers, such as Russia, employ military force thinking that they are so strong that they can get what they want. And amazingly (as we are seeing now and I will discuss in the last segment), analysts are supporting the idea that war is somehow easy to wage and win.

The sign is that the US is so weak now and lacking in leverage, that the end result of this might be something that could be immensely good for the USA and the region; an American military withdrawal from the Middle East. And that means no more US military bases, no permanent stationing of troops, no regular commitments of US military forces to try and control things.

If there is one thing that can be said without doubt, it is that the massive use of US military force in the Middle East over the last few decades has been a disaster for everyone—Americans, residents of the region, and arguably the rest of the world. This latest humiliation is so total, maybe a new way can be attempted that would see the US stop fooling itself by thinking it can control things it cannot.

And that is a great thing—great for the region and great for the USA. I promise that piece next week, maybe at the start of the midweek update. The US has a chance to benefit from this failure.

Note: I really need to unload on one piece of analysis here, so I am reserving this section for paying subscribers.

Beware Claims That War Is Easy

It would have been so easy for the USA to win this war and defeat Iran! I am sure you know that because the USA has won so many wars over the past 50 years—won them quickly, with little commitment and much glory. What do you say? That is not true.

Well, this idea that war can be won quickly and easily remains embedded in certain parts of the academic/analytical community. This past week saw the most extraordinary claims in that regard from a very well-known academic.