Midweek Update #13: How Weak Is The USA?

Trump Is Creating A Scorched Earth GOP and Executive Branch—Be Afraid

Hi All,

In discussing the present situation with a knowledgeable US source yesterday I asked how Trump eventually gets out of the Iran War (which as always he remains desperate to do). The response I got was fascinating. I was told: “Right now he cannot get out. It is physics.” What this person meant is that while Trump tries constantly to wriggle away, the unbreakable hold that Iran and Israel have over his power/position always sucks him back him. The US does not control its own destiny at this point in the war, indeed every day the American position is weakening. The US is in a far weaker state than it was when the ceasefire was announced on April 7, and will be in weaker position next week when I write this (unless Trump surrenders).

This story of US weakness certainly is the story of the week, maybe the year.

This weakness ties into what Trump is doing with the GOP and the federal government, which gets comment but I am not sure of the right type. People need to ask themselves why Trump is prizing absolute subservient loyalty over anything. Its not just that he wants to punish his enemies. He has always wanted to do that. No, its far more than that, Trump is setting up a parallel system to protect himself and maintain his power, and that is based on total control of the GOP and executive government. This might actually be the thing that makes US decline unstoppable. He is, as always, willing to destroy the country to save himself. And his Iran war is accelerating that.

Trump dozing off in a Cabinet meeting this week—however he is not politically resting.

How Weak Is The USA?

The strategic catastrophe of Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran gets worse every week, actually every day. Recently we are seeing arguably the greatest example of the growth of American global weakness that Trump has accelerated. Trump has shown that the USA cannot control either Iran or Israel—indeed that he is panicking as those two states are doing what they want regardless of his threats or wishes. The idea of the USA as either the indispensable partner or unstoppable enemy is gone.

It may never come back.

Cast your mind back to almost exactly a year ago. Trump had joined the Israeli bombing of Iran for one night in June 2025 and celebrated it as a great victory. Then, Trump was determined to end that phase of the war asap, and even though the Israelis believed that their campaign needed to go on, he ordered them, publicly and humiliatingly, to stop.

Trump’s public rebuke to Israel was accepted then, and the Israelis did stop the bombing of Iran, even reportedly turning around some aircraft that were already flying. In the last few weeks Trump has tried to do something similar and the Israelis are basically not reacting, but doing what Netanyahu wants to do. This is in Lebanon.

For those who have not been following this, any deal with Iran to be acceptable to Iran has to include protection for Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon. Netanyahu, however, has determined that a growing war in Lebanon is in his interest and has been steadily expanding the invasion of that country in the interval. Israel now has established control over a long buffer zone.

At the same time, Israel has been bombing around the south of the country and the Lebanese capital of Beirut. Here is a BBC map of Israeli strikes up until a week ago.

Btw, remember a few years ago when it was said that Hezbollah had been crippled to the point that it might not recover? That was, as these claims always are, nonsense. Indeed, with changes in military tech, it is actually easier and quicker to rebuild a strike capability these days (as the Israelis are figuring out as they struggle fighting Hezbollah drones). Its another sign, for me at least, that the US needs to get out of the Middle East as an active military force. I have been arguing this for years but the evidence now is even more compelling. I will produce a new piece on this next week—maybe as part of the midweek update.

This Israeli military action has been driving Trump nuts. That is not because he cares about the Lebanese people (he could not give a damn about them) but because he cannot get a deal with Iran unless Israel relents. Unlike last year, however, Trump cannot simply order the Israelis to turn around—and as such is getting desperate. He is even losing control over himself when he talks with Netanyahu.

In this Axios story from the day before, it was reported that Trump started screaming, even cursing, at Israeli PM Netanyahu, for defying him over Lebanon.

And yet, over the last few weeks the Israelis have been expanding their military operation, exactly when Trump wants them to do the opposite. Nothing could show US weakness any more dramatically. In the past Israel would have been desperately concerned with not embarrassing or undermining. Now they are doing what they want.

Since Trump’s freak out, for instance, there are reports that Israel is stepping up military action in Lebanon. The FT claims that Israel has expanded its bombing of Beirut in the last 24-48 hours. On the ground, the Israelis have crossed the Litani River in the last week, even seizing the well-known Crusader-built, Beaufort Castle.

Its a remarkable example of US weakness.

And it is not the only one. This week the Iranians seemed to get tired of having to play along with Trump’s public/private farce and stepped back from talks for a while.

Trump’s public/private farce goes like this. Publicly Trump keeps saying that negotiations with Iran are going well, that a deal is close, that Iran indeed wants a deal, and that all this is no big deal. His most recent tweet on the war, released just a few hours ago, was just another example of his desperate need to describe the negotiations as going well and to make it look like he is in control of his own destiny.

However my favorite example of Trump’s public farce was this claim, which might go down in history as his “chirping” tweet which he sent out on June 1. Basically everything is fine Americans, relax and let me work my magic!

It follows hot on the heels of the unravelling of his latest claims that a deal was close. Remember, on May 23, almost two weeks ago, Trump was claiming a deal was very close. This was what he said at the time.

“An Agreement has been largely negotiated,…Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly.”

it was being reported that this time, really, really a deal was in the offing. Secretary of State Rubio continued to sound optimistic even yesterday—yes a deal is closer than people realize. All that was left to negotiate are two simple issues—Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz….

Of course those issues are basically not solvable at present unless Trump surrenders to Iran. The Iranians, as they have been doing, are willing to string Trump along on both, offering nothing but demanding lots. The Iranian government even publicly said this week that they are halting serious negotiations with the USA.

Look closely at the power imbalance here. It is the US government that is desperate to keep up the fiction that the negotiations are going well, that Iran is making major concessions and that a deal is close. The Iranians, on the other hand, are happy to project the opposite image; that they can walk away from the talks and are happy to let this string for longer.

So Iran and Israel now share one thing very much in common. They are willing to defy the US, incur US anger in the case of the latter and even dare the USA to restart military operations in the case of the former. In fact the US has started up military strikes this week, and it has made no difference.

This is what I mean about the USA getting weaker every day. On April 7 when the bombing campaign was called off, destruction of Iranian military capabilities was at its high point and Iran was at its weakest. In the last two months the Iranians have rebuilt some capabilities and the US has run down some of its in the region. On the other hand, both the Iranians and Israelis understand that the USA is getting military weaker all the time—and they are acting accordingly.

So how weak is the USA now? Much weaker than on April 7 and getting weaker every day.

Trump Is Creating A Scorched Earth GOP and Executive Branch—Be Afraid

Trump knows that he is in real trouble in the Middle East, which is why privately he is raging and swearing. And he also know that he is politically in trouble because of this and other things such as the rising cost of living (made much worse by his Middle Eastern policy). As he gets politically weaker in the country as a whole, he seems to be acting in a counterintuitive way—opting for MAGA hardcore supporters over those who have a better chance of winning elections.

He did this most famously in the Texas senate race, where he threw his support behind the epically corrupt Ken Paxton over the sitting GOP senator John Cornyn—even though Cornyn was polling much better than Paxton when it came to holding the seat for the GOP in the November election.

Ken Paxton Was Not Selected By Trump For His Integrity Or Political Appeal

When it comes to government employees, Trump is also going for the hard-core loyalists over those who might be more appealing to the Republican Party. His choice made yesterday, for a new Director of National Intelligence, showed how deep he was down this rabbit hole. His selection of Bill Pulte showed that absolute loyalty and willingness to break the law to help protect him is all that matters now. Here was how the New York Times started their report on Pulte.

Mr. Pulte, who leads the federal housing finance agency, has no known background in intelligence, defense or national security, but he has been among the most aggressive advocates for prosecuting Democrats and others perceived by Mr. Trump as having crossed him.

The appointment of Pulte mirrors exactly what Trump has done with his Attorney General. He got rid of Pam Bondi, who had disgraced herself on his behalf, when he felt she needed to debase herself even more. In her place he put Todd Blanche, a man who would do whatever he wanted, when he wanted.

Blanche to show that there are no limits on his loyalty, turned around and set up Trump’s $1,776 billion slush fund to reward January 6th terrorists. Interestingly, Trump seems to be relenting on this precisely because it means that Blanche might not get confirmed as Attorney General. The money matters less than the absolute loyalty in charge of the US government.

Btw, you might have missed this in the reporting, but while Blanche walked back commitment to the slush fund, he reaffirmed that the Justice Department would continue with its pledge to protect the Trump’s from any future investigations. Its about protection—remember that.

Now why is Trump doing what seems to be decisions to make himself less popular and less politically secure going forward? The answer is not because he is stupid (Trump as I have been saying for years is not politically stupid but is actually extremely saavy), it is because he is adopting what could be called a scorched earth strategy to protect himself and his power going forward. He wants absolute and total control of the GOP, even if that means he might lose a seat here or there. And he wants a federal government that will do whatever he wants when he wants, regardless of the slightest scruple.

It sets him up to corrupt either the November vote or its results. People are being too blase about this election. Trump has a party that is completely under his sway and a federal government that is staffed by uber loyalists. It gives him terrible and powerful options to subvert democracy.

It is no mistake.

And it goes back to the Iran war. Trump is so stuck that he might have no option but to let this war continue to play out for weeks/months longer. The longer than happens the wilder this could be economically. He has now has a party and government that will do what he wants if chaos ensues, or indeed if he chooses to start chaos.

It is physics after all.