Midweek Update #12: We Are Witnessing US Decline In Real Time

The Military Strikes Do Not Hide The Fact That The US Has No Good Military Options Against Iran; China Backs Iran But Taiwan Is A "Chip"?

Hi All,

The last few days have been particularly painful for those who are worried about US decline. Particularly, but not exclusively, the US flailing around desperately as it tries to extricate itself from a war that it started by choice only three months ago, makes it apparent how diminished and friendless the USA is in the world these days. Moreover, it is made worse because much/most of the reason for this decline is by choice. The USA did not have to find itself so weakened so soon, but it has.

I do not celebrate US decline and I certainly take no pleasure in it. The world that it emerging out of US self-inflicted failure is likely to be even more unstable and warlike, and less interested in norms of behavior, than the one being left behind. It holds out the prospect of being much more dangerous. Yet here we are and the reality cannot be avoided.

Moreover, US decline could have been much less quick. Some decline was always going to happen as the US lost its economic dominance. However, the US still retains some important economic strength. Why US decline is so stark now is down to other factors, from its alienation of allies, its growing and open corruption, its unreliability and its military degradation. Much of this is down to US choice, done willingly and with public support.

How The Japan Times Saw The USA A Few Years Ago. What Must They Think Now?

It certainly was on display this week.

US Decline And The Iran War

Donald Trump is desperate to get out of this war, but as has been the case for almost two months now, he does not yet know exactly how. He seems to be close to agreeing a deal that accedes to most of Iran’s strategic requirements, but he cannot yet pull the trigger. As I wrote on Monday, the only question left is: How Badly Has The US Lost This War.

There Is Only One Remaining Question--How Badly Has The USA Lost This War?

One issue that will answer this question, at least stylistically, is whether Trump can get some form of words from Iran about a nuclear deal that he can sell to the US population as better than that negotiated by President Obama under the JCPOA. The problem is that nothing he is getting so far, as he seems to grasp, is as good as the JCPOA. As such, it seems to be dawning on him that he might have to accept a deal that leaves Iran in control of its nuclear destiny. He even tweeted about it late on Monday in what looks like a clear attempt to prepare his supporters for this eventuality.

Anything “destroyed in place or, an another acceptable location” means out of US control—nothing more or nothing less.

Maybe Putin’s Russia will do? It certainly would qualify under Trump’s criterion.

Btw, one real problem for the US is that the president does not understand nuclear technologies (what the hell is “ Nuclear dust”) or the international bodies that are supposed to regulate nuclear power (the Atomic Energy Commission was a US-government body that was disestablished in the 1970s). Trump might very well agree to something and not understand what he is doing.

So here we are and the US president is left fighting for a nuclear fig leaf to try and hide his failure. That alone would be a remarkable sign of decline.

However that might not have been the most poignant moment which highlighted US decline. It was this call by Trump a few hours before his nuclear tweet, calling on almost all the Arab states in the region to agree to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel. Trump did this in a long and weirdly elaborate message. Apologies for the size, but you might want to read the whole thing.

Now my guess (reinforced from what I am hearing) is that Trump is doing this to try and appease Netanyahu and other pro-Israeli or harder-line GOP voices who are expressing dismay at the prospect of him agreeing a deal with Iran. As he is on the cusp of disappointing both groups, he decided to make this gambit.

However it was the reaction, or lack thereof, that was really illuminating of US decline. Trump did not just tweet this, he was very serious about it and mentioned it in a conference call to the leaders of key Islamic states. The response of those leaders was stunned silence, so much so that Trump was worried that the call had been dropped. As one story said:

“There was silence on the line and Trump joked and asked if they are still there”

Since then not a single state has agreed to Trump’s request and no one even seems to be taking it seriously. The truth is that the states Trump was trying to cajole into joining the Abraham Accords are now more than acquainted with US weakness and unreliability. The last thing they are going to do is jump to the tune of a declining US that is being out-maneuvered by Iran. It used to be that when the US president suggested a major foreign policy move, people would at least respond.

The US is being defied by its enemies and dismissed by its friends and it is all happening in front of our eyes.

The Military Strikes Do Not Hide The Fact That The US Has No Good Military Options

On Tuesday morning the US struck some Iranian vessels that it says were in the process of deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz (so much for Iranian incoming pledges to make the waterway free and open to all as the administration keeps telling us). This resulted in an Iranian response and then US attacking what it said were Iranian missile sites.

All this shows is that, at present, the Iranians retain the military ability to threaten shipping in the Strait, which is all they need to keep the waterway closed. Moreover, reports this week, including most prominently this one by CNN which was based on multiple sources, claim that Iran is reconstituting its military capabilities and industries much faster than anticipated. Here was how the story began.

Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.

The reality seems to be that in continuing to prevaricate, what the US is doing is showing it has no good military options left if it wants to restart hostilities. Indeed, the longer it waits, the worse the situation becomes as it is the Iranians who are reconstituting force more rapidly than expected.

If that is not all, the Iranians are also getting support from those who the US has tried to cultivate. It turns out that China and Russia, aware of US weakness, have been and are doing considerably more to help Iran than has been publicly understood.

The behavior of the Chinese shows just how weak the US has become. This is happening right after the Trump-Xi summit during which the US asked for Chinese support to help pressure Iran. Instead, the opposite seems to be happening. In terms of military support, reports are that China has recently sent missile components to Iran. These shipments are intended to replace complex machinery and systems destroyed or damaged during the initial phases of the conflict. China is helping Iran become militarily stronger.

Diplomatically, the Chinese seem to be going to significant lengths to make it clear that they are in touch with the Iranian regime and support Iran’s positions on the ceasefire. This is exactly what the Chinese response was to the US attack yesterday.

So much for Trump’s request.

This open and quiet disregard for US power by the Chinese also heralds US decline. What is particularly notable in that regard is the one-sided nature of the relationship. While the Chinese are refusing to do what was asked of them, the Trump administration seems desperate to curry favor with the Chinese. This is the case even it means abandoning a staunch friend of the USA.

China Backs Iran But Taiwan Is A “Chip”

Maybe the starkest example of US decline is how the US is speaking and acting about Taiwan while China supports Iran. While the Chinese are helping the Iranian military in its fight against the USA, the US seems to be on the cusp of abandoning democratic Taiwan as it looks to protect itself. The key issue now is the fate of a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan that the administration had previously approved, but which the Chinese government has put pressure on Trump to withdraw.

Just over a week ago, President Trump made his feelings about Taiwan obvious when he spoke about this military sale to Taiwan being a great “bargaining chip”. His exact quote about the arms sale was:

"I'm holding that in abeyance and it depends on China…It's a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly. It's a lot of weapons."

To further destabilize the Taiwanese, the acting US Navy secretary Hung Cao, speaking to Congress, said that the arms sale to Taiwan had been paused because of the armaments requirements of the war with Iran. Admitting that this had not been discussed with the Taiwanese, Cao also made no pledge that the arms sale would go through once the war with Iran was settled.

In other words, democratic Taiwan is being left twisting in the wind by the USA, while China supports its friend Iran.

Decline indeed.