If Trump Will Not Join The War, What Then?

Hi All,

An update on the Israel-Iran Air War today. Will keep most of it free, as I’m quoting my favorite Senior Republican source and I have no desire to take money to have people read their remarks.

There are a number of different issues swirling around, particularly the “two-weeks” comment that the Trump administration made yesterday about possibly joining the war. If “two-weeks” means what it normally means, and as it has regularly meant for Ukraine, then the US is almost certainly going to stay out of the war. It has been Trump’s go-to phrase if he does not want to do something and is looking for time. He has regularly said he needs two weeks to decide if he will sanction Russia more, to produce a new health care plan, etc. Yet, whenever he uses the phrase, the two week deadline passes and nothing happens—and Trump happily goes on to other things.

As those who having paying subscriptions would have read Tuesday, I remain far from convinced that Trump ever had any intention of bombing Iran.

The Israel-Iran Air War: Destruction Vs Coercion

Instead of restating that, I will cut and paste the text from Tuesday’s piece.

One thing the Iranians have not done, which they could, is attack US bases in the region. My guess is because, like the Israelis, they understand that what the US does will play a major role in how this plays out in the short term. As I wrote this weekend, I think those who believe that the US will definitely join the attack against Iran are jumping to conclusions.

What I have seen from Trump is actually more of a desire to get a deal which makes him look strong and decisive—but not to join the fighting unless he absolutely has to. He clearly wants to associate himself with Israeli airpower and the seeming success of the opening parts of the campaign, but he is also not rushing to join the attack.

And he might never. For every one of his bellicose comments, there is another where he talks about wanting a deal. And he is clearly torn about things. The MAGA hardcore is against US participation in the operation, led by Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon (joined by MTG and other from the more isolationist wing). Much of MAGA’s appeal has been its call to avoid foreign wars. Trump hates feeling this pressure, but understands it—and has railed specifically against Carlson in a tweet which is a sign that its getting to him.

As of now, I think its far from a done deal that the US enters this war as a combatant—if it does not, it will make the end point far messier for Israel. One of the reasons the Iranians have not yet attacked US facilities, is, I would think, their desire to make it clear to Trump that they are willing to make a deal.

The last few days only made me more convinced of this. Trump thought he could bully Iran into surrendering with his threats such as the OTT “Unconditional Surrender” tweet he sent out Tuesday night. He had been watching Fox news and probably being told by some friends that Iran was on its last legs, and all he had to do was act tough, Iran would fold, and he could have a victory parade.

When Iran did not fold, Trump was stuck. He does not want to join the war for a number of reasons.

• He has no financial interest in either side winning.

• He knows it will fracture his MAGA base more than any other issue could.

• His backers in the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, who have provided his family with billions, are very wary about the US entering the war.

• Any US attack would turn US bases in the Middle East into targets for Iranian missiles.

My guess is that these reasons meant he would never have attacked, even as he was trying to talk himself into the operation. I may be wrong, and maybe he will reconsider, but right now I read the “two-week” comment as a way to delay and give him time to maneuver on how to stay out. Btw, here is the video of White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt using the infamous “two-weeks” claim.

I’ve also discussed it with my Senior Republican associate in whom I have total trust—to tell me exactly what they are thinking. And this source, as readers know, has been amazingly accurate with their analyses now for a year.

A Senior Republican Speaks: Part 3

We have been chatting back and forth about Trump and Iran for a while, after the two weeks statement yesterday, we have the following exchange.

Me: What do you think was the percentage chance that Trump ever would have attacked Iran?

SR: 0.

SR: But i think at times he thought he would. Doesn’t mean he would.

I thought this was particularly astute and asked if I could quote it, and they agreed.

So where do things stand? Well, unless Trump is deliberately trying to fool Iran and is about to unleash hell, it looks like the US support for Israel will not include actual fighting. So, Israel will have to try to use its air supremacy on its own to try and end this campaign successfully—which could be tricky.

The main issues that face by Israel and Iran now, on the assumption that the US stays out are (will keep these for subscribers):