Does Europe Really Want to Save Itself?

We will know Sooner Than Many Understand.

Hello All

The election in Czechia four days ago and political developments in France yesterday (which might herald a new National Assembly election) have triggered a new round of pessimistic soul-searching. That soul-searching is on the question whether people really do want to save and protect the good things in their societies? One thing I have learned about myself over the last three and a half years of writing pieces of analysis is that my greatest errors almost always emerge from optimism. When I err towards an optimistic take on human nature or decision making (“The USA will understand the need to give Ukraine ranged weapons”, or, “Kamala Harris can win because there is no way that a majority of Americans will support Trump after Jan 6”)—I make my biggest miscalculations. Otoh, when I let my pessimistic side free rein (“Trump will do nothing meaningful for Ukraine”, etc) I tend to be more accurate than I would like to be.

And this pessimism-optimism dialectic is well and truly working overtime when it comes to European states. Yes, European states are starting to do more for Ukraine and they are (or some of them are) starting to take their defense responsibilities more seriously. There are even bat squeaks of independent strategic thinking happening below the surface. And yet, everything has taken so long and has so much further to go—and still to this day too many European leaders remain bewitched by US strategic dominance.