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Philip MINNS's avatar

Agree, Trump is pure evil and something like the outcome you predict is definitely on the cards. But the devil is in the detail, as always. It is highly unlikely that Ukraine will agree to cede any part of its sovereign territory for a mere cease-fire. I think too you may be underestimating the role that the Europeans and Canada can play to defy Trump and his possible threats to leave NATO. Everybody knows, even Trump, that he cannot do this overnight. He can bluster all he wants about "Ukraine not wanting peace" and stop weapons deliveries, but he has more or less done that already. He can't relax sanctions on Russian banks using SWIFT because the Europeans run it. And they will strongly resist lifting their other sanctions, however much pressure Trump exerts. And when Ukraine says no and vows to fight on, how will Americans, in Congress and public opinion, react as Putin steps up his campaign of terror against Ukrainian cities ? In the six days between now and August 15, a lot can and will happen to stop Trump's evil prevailing. It is not even impossible that the Alaska meeting will be postponed or even cancelled.

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Arent's avatar

The ISW already said that ceding territory means that Ukraine must leave their current fortified positions and that would leave them very vulnerable for future attacks on Slovyansk for instance. Zelensky already said that under Ukraine constitution, it's not up to him to concede Ukrainian territory. So no, the deal is not gonna happen. Perhaps it's better to not pay too much attention to what Trump says and does. As with the tariff talks, more and more evidence shows up that European and Japanese concessions on tariffs are more likely to damage US economy. Instead, I'm more interested in EU, UK and Ukraine response to the Alaska summit. I'm critical of the coalition of willing countries, but they're acting for the good of Ukraine. Slowly but surely, that's where the real power lines in Europe run now.

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