Defeating Russia Is Not Complex--We Just Do Not Want To Do It

Also Minna and I Will Launch A Substack Live On Friday 1700BST/1200EST

Hi All,

I suppose the thing that is the most frustrating of watching Ukraine be tormented (and that is what we are seeing) is not only is it cruel, it is utterly unnecessary. The idea that Russia will “win” this war—which is the one of the basic narratives out there (especially in Washington DC), is based on assumptions that make little sense economically, militarily, or historically. They are actually grounded as much on misunderstandings of all of these three as anything else.

Btw, before I go any more into this, I wanted to say that Minna Alander and I will attempt our first Substack live on Friday at 5pm BST. Stay tuned!

And yet, the idea that Russia will win the war is what the Trump administration is telling senior Ukrainians to justify their decision to