Hi All,
Certain dates become etched in a society’s memory. December 7 for the USA, July 14 for the French, October 28 for Greece. There is a chance that for modern Europeans, August 18 could be such a day. That is because Europe’s leaders will soon face a choice that they cannot duck—and it is a choice that could define the whole development of European power and politics in the coming years. And it is a choice that will almost certainly change the course of the Russo-Ukraine War.
What we do know is that all the talk that Trump got nothing at Anchorage was, as per usual, bad common wisdom. Actually Trump and Putin seem to have come together on a plan to divide Ukraine (eventually end the country) based on a few concrete steps that start now. The key steps that are out there are:
Ukraine cedes all of its own territory in Donetsk and Luhansk (even territory that the Russians have not illegally conquered)
In exchange the US and Russia offer Ukraine security guarantees that are not the equivalent of NATO but we are told will be honest-to-God, cross-my-heart robust—almost like NATO article 5.
Stories that this is the deal are circulating widely—both publicly and privately. Steve Witkoff said as much publicly on US television, saying that Trump and Putin had come together on this land-for-deal plan, and that the security guarantees for Ukraine would be awesome; just like article 5 but not exactly article 5.
Trump himself seems to be frantic in his talks about a big deal.
While Trump himself has been tweeting in his manic ways about a big deal he has also switched his attention to badgering Zelensky. Its almost like he is preparing himself to try and force Zelensky to make a decision that he knows Zelensky does not want to make.
And their are reports that Trump and the US are coming down on Ukraine like a ton of bricks. The Economist tweeted out this.
So there we are—decision time is here. And there are two decisions—one that will be made by Zelensky and the others by the combined European leadership group that will all be in Washington DC at the same time. The top of the European power tree will also all be in Washington today. Amongst those who have confirmed they will attend are:
Keir Starmer, UK prime minister
Emmanuel Macron, French president
Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor
Alexander Stubb, President of Finland
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
Mark Rutte, Nato Secretary General
Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister
Of course the last thing that Trump will do is meet with all the Europeans together. His plan is to first bring in Zelensky alone—probably to browbeat the Ukrainian president to agree to give up Ukrainian lands. Only after he does that, will Trump meet with the Europeans.
Its all so transparent. Trump is doing Putin’s work and trying to get the Russians the lands of democratic Ukraine—lands that they could not conquer. This is now the position of the US Government.
We now know what Trump and Putin want. What we do not know is what the European leaders will do when the moment comes. Their decisions could determine the course of European history.
What I am Hearing: Take With Caution
I have been trying to ask around the US and Europe to find out what people are saying (whom I trust). I do not want to say I can guarantee any of this (though the picture is slightly more on the optimistic side than I would have thought) so this will go just to paid subscribers. Please, treat all of this with caution.
