An Even Worse Letter About Ukraine

Which Did Not Seem Possible After the Realists Stepped In.

Hello All,

For some reason I can open the whole letter in the FT for free, though some others cant. To help those who cant, Ive just added the whole text at the end of this post.

Its open season for terrible open letters by academics and retired civil servants and other assorted Russian apologists telling Ukraine what Ukraine must do, and other countries who want to support Ukraine what they must do (or more accurately what they must not do). There was the open letter by the “Realists” last week, which I talked about in Sunday’s weekend update. This letter was covered with unsupported (and unsupportable) statements and had some weird logical inconsistencies. What is interesting is that on Twitter one of the authors came to say I was wrong—but when I asked him about one of those inconsistencies (why should the Baltic states be treated any differently on this than Ukraine), there was no response.

That’s the thing about this letter—it plays two sides of the NATO game. On the one hand it says that Ukraine should not be allowed into NATO because the US would be bound to fight for it under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. But on the other the letter goes on to says that Ukraine matters more to Russia (its not in US interest) than to the USA, indeed NATO, and therefore NATO would not deter a Russian invasion.

That was what Wertheim was talking about—that Russia would be so “threatening” to Ukraine that NATO would not prevent an attack. This fit into their “logic” that if Russia cant be deterred on Ukraine, that therefore Ukraine should not be allowed into NATO.

In that case, as I asked, why are the Baltic states not in exactly the same situation as Ukraine? Presumably they are just as vital to Russia (being former parts of the USSR), as well as being incredibly important strategic locations along the Baltic coast (and provide the only direct access to Kaliningrad). Moreover the Baltics have significant Russian speaking populations. Also, as NATO states they bring the alliance closer to Moscow or central Russia than any other states.

That is why Russian propaganda speaks luridly about wiping the Baltics off the map once they deal with Ukraine.

So by any logical measure, Russia has the same national interests to see the Baltics outside of NATO as it does with Ukraine.

Of course when asked that question there was no response—its just a wee bit pathetic. Indeed the fact that the letter never addressed the questions of the Baltics at any time shows how the authors are intellectual cowards.