A Nothingburger Of Hope

With Some Potential Problems For Ukraine

Hello Everyone,

At this point I should probably headline this Substack—Abandon Hope All Ye That Enter Here! I’m amazed that so many of you can put up with the regular doses of cold water and skepticism that I dump on those trying to find silver linings in Trump’s interactions with Ukraine. Well brace yourself, you are about to get another. The much heralded minerals deal between Ukraine and the USA gives Ukraine nothing concrete and actually holds out some dangerous hostages to fortune. What it does represent is the literal end of any new US aid for Ukraine with no sign that more is actually coming. Its a dangerous thing to report otherwise—though that is not stopping people from doing so.

Almost immediately after the agreement was signed on the evening of Wednesday April 30, people lost their heads saying that it was “historic”, or that it represented some pivot by Trump towards Ukraine. There was even the appearance of that dreaded word “hope”. Now, supposedly, Ukraine could look forward to its future with hope, one which would see the US aid once again start pouring into the country to make sure that the US investment (actually non-existent) in Ukraine maintained viable.

Signing the Mineral Deal—the Hype Seems Overblown

In reality, this deal provides almost no basis for hope, has some worrying signs for Ukraine and has more of a possibility of making things worse than better. Moreover, the $50 million in US military aid for Ukraine, which people are saying was part of the deal, almost certainly was not. (This aid was approved at least 24 hours before the deal was signed—not after which the media is reporting. More on that below).